bryan629

Well this is all very interesting, looks like a massive hit on the PV to me Definately easterly winds here Signs of a split going on lower down as well ... GFS control 12z showed that up nicely!!

Also a good visualization of what a split SPV looks like

AO literally falls off a cliff!!

Cracking pub run... since modelling watching from 2011 i dont think i have ever seen a black hole as significsnt as this before

Control is Epic.. High speed cross polar flow inbound !!

Gem/CMC Control , wow!!! widespread snow for everyone if this verifies . Shame its not in the reliable at 192 hahaha

GFS whips up a hoolie next Thursday... !!!

Gem control way out at 8th Jan goes for a split SPV

GFS is modelling a split in around 10 days! is this normal for the time of year?

So just for fun i decided to peer deeply into the muddy waters of the netweather crystal ball , which also has a good smattering of tea leaves for good measure! Something caught my eye this morning from the GFS way out in neverland to something i saw on X yesterday, so i put A+B together and arrived more than likely at Z , First off is the MJO prediction for late october and early november: HP dominated wesern europe which seems to drift northeast over to Scandi. Then as mentioned the GFS late OCT Early NOV So nothing particularly striking about these charts, unless you like a south easterly. I just found it uncanny that yesterdays MJO prediction looks a lot like the GFS 00z Absolutely not wheeling out the `P` word at all.. and all just for fun, so nobody needs to wake Nick Sussex just yet.

What does Judah mean by "Interesting but on an Island" . Do you think he means the ECM is a bit out of kilter.

With some references today talking of " Water Vapour " in the strat. Im assuming this Vapour would actually be ice crystals being so high up. Do the weather ballons measure the ice crystals. I was also wondering about the Antarctic polar vortex and if was stronger and faster spinning than normal or slower and weaker? might give us an idea if and how all the WV may impact on our SPV this year. Loving the cansips update BTW ,but how come they are smoothed out to the point there is no sign anywhere of the trop PV on them?

This one will be namd Margot. Incidentally , met office reporting warmest day of the year just now.

A plume of elevated Saharan Dust currently seen in satellite imagery heading for the SW UK and Ireland this evening, and then continues further N for Tuesday evening. Potential for some spectacular sunrises / sunsets this week.

Yes.. looks like the 6z following GEFS 0z control... obviously a long way off and nothing guaranteed. Seems to follow the coastline. Great for surfers at Lazarous i expect, or insane!! Maybe Tamaras watching and breathing a sigh of relief

Is this the definition of a medicane ?

At least cansips is sticking to its guns ( June and July editions)

OMG!! thought we were done for today.. a few bright flahes here.. loud bangs.. gets up to check radar.. mental!! Where did all this come from ?

Recretos published this earlier discussing the relationship with an El Nino and an EQBO this coming winter A Stratospheric wind anomaly is developing over the Equator, expected to impact the Weather along the El Nino in the next Winter Season » Severe Weather Europe WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU Winter Weather in the United States, Canada and Europe will be influenced by the changing wind anomalies in the Stratosphere over the Tropics

Night and day view.mp4 Cloud cleared up nicely today inland..about flippin time too. Looking at this satellite loop cloud in the North Sea looks to be very thin, if not a lot drier air as well. So hopefully if it does move inland again tonight it should break dead quick tomorrow morning.. hope the east coast gets to enjoy some decent sunny spells as well. Looking forward to a warm/Very warm weekend now.

I see the navgem wants to send a profuse apology to us by next Saturday to make up for the naff teperatures endured down the eastern half of the UK this week gone.

It is still astonishing that CPC are adamant about a regressing HP despite all the other overwhelming evidence of an easterly progressing HP .. even the discussion on their website states above average chance of that 4 out of 5 . I suspect a change in their anomoly charts fairly soon. Thank you @Tamara too, brilliant insight that the NWP were barking up the wrong tree and hope you have a great summer !

Finally!! A bulls eye thunderstorm over Ripon.. it is absolutley epic.. Packed with lightening and thunder , still making a racket even though its moved off east. Torrential rain as well :)

I was meant to travel the A59 from about 8am to get to Keighley from Ripon. I had a feeling it would be bad on that road, specially the winding steep inclination to the top from Swinsty reservoir..then even if that was managed the long run over the moors to Beamsley hill.. i reckoned it would be really bad up there so just cancelled my appointments. I just want to say a really big thank you to people like you whom rise well above and beyond the call of duty and serve the public the wat you do .. Thank you

Hi Devin, happy to see you and hope you like what you read.. Middleton is quite high up and usually does well when it snows compared to lower parts of leeds. hope you have a sledge ready for Miggy hill