Jonan92
Members-
Posts
360 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Jonan92
-
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Jonan92 replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All of Europe under the freezing temperatures except Spain, this will hurt A LOT -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, this is the correc comparison 12z 00z -
Not really, in 12hours you don't have this change 00z 12z (current run) The change is better seen if we compare today's 120 with yersteday's 144 Yesterday Today
- 2,572 replies
-
Big changes in UKMO, everything is moved to the east quite a lot
- 2,572 replies
-
Well, Andalusia and the Basque Country have a very very differnt climate
-
Snowing at just 100m in the Basque Country
-
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It just takes a little longer for the ridge to go up, but I would say that the low is better tilted in this run so the heights should go higher up -
Snow in the Basque Country in low altitude. It's snowing in Zarautz (coastal town) with a white beach, and in several towns of Gipuzkoa that are above 100m
-
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Control run looking good -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On the other hand you have another amplification coming from behind As I said before this situation will be changing a lot from run to run -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I mean, every situation shown by this runs will be very knife edge, when you have such small atlantic lows knowing how they will interact is perhaps the most difficult prediction task for current numerical models. The situation is quite amazing to see from a synoptic analysis, most situations that will favour cold will come from knife edgning scenarios IMO -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those atlantic lows always find a way to avoid a clean heights rise -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking good so far, let's see hwo far up it goes GFS -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
Jonan92 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking much cleaner than GFS, I like it -
GEM showing one of the best possible mid range solutions
-
Arpege is the best short-term high-definition model IMO
-
It doesn't look like the 00z run. In that run the high was tilted to towards Canada, in this run the lines are quite straight, it's similar to the 06z run but more amplified
-
ICON 6z ICON 12z Stronger and better aligned heights I would say
-
I think the icelandic low will bridge with the one west of Greenland
-
At 90 the 18z is pretty similar, a little bit less amplified but barely
-
FI - No organized vortex in sight, that's nice
-
Who was right at Feb 2012? I can't remember
-
UKMO and GEM are very similar with a heights that don't get far enough to last long, something similar to this morning's ECM. In my experience GFS is usually the lat to come onboard with an idea and the last to leave it behind, so personally I don't put much faith on this run
-
The strength of the block is easily seen in the jet profile 06z 12z In this run the flow gets interrupted
-
Heights rising further north in this run The low to the east of Greenland is further away, so the heights have a clearer path