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scellus

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  1. No problem. Yes I'm an amateur in this stuff and in other kind of meteorology, but see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/meetings/2012/CFSv2/Perlwitz.pdf slide 14 or so, and the conclusions at the end.GFS ensemble is still quite +AOish, but mybe it doesn't reach far enough.
  2. I read somewhere that the stratosphere-troposphere coupling is poor even in CFS v2. It might not have good idea of what happens after the SSW, then.(Greetings from Finland, by the way. )
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