A GFS 12z that is enough to make me crawl out of the woodwork
Temperatures as low as -16 being modelled would suggest to me that locally there would be temperatures several degrees lower. Maybe sub -20 celsius in the usual frosty locations? Benson, Newport etc.
FI I know, but with the scale an instability of cold hopefully heading our way from Scandinavia, I think these sorts of conditions somewhere, at some point, are becoming more likely than they have been at any point during the last few winters.