Skin

Doesn't last. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/mrf3.nh.shtml

The reason behind the odd QBO locking in earlier this year was due to the strong el Nino event. That explains a lot, actually. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070751/abstract

The state of the PDO is helping negate the ENSO signals. Which I think allows the SSWEs to take precedence this winter. Positive PDO blocks or interferes with the propagation of the ENSO signal through the extratropics

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxzdHJhdG9zcGhlcmljd2FybWluZ3N8Z3g6NzM1ODZjYjIxMWE4ZTgyOA Table 2, has 7 different SSW definitions. Look at how unsure we are about what constitutes as a SSW. Hopefully the WMO will get the point we need a set one definition. whatever it is. From this paper. https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxzdHJhdG9zcGhlcmljd2FybWluZ3N8Z3g6MjJkZmUzY2M3ZmVkYjhhMA

Got some information straight from NOAA and AMS regarding the current strat situation. Basically just reiterating what we already know, NOT a major SSW and will try to classify as a Minor SSW. Today's Topics: 1. Re: Wave-2 stratospheric warming to usher in the New Year! (Amy Butler - NOAA Affiliate) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message: 1 Date: Fri, 9 Jan 2015 12:32:30 -0700 From: Amy Butler - NOAA Affiliate <amy.butler@noaa.gov> To: strat_list@nwra.com Subject: Re: [strat_list] Wave-2 stratospheric warming to usher in the New Year! Message-ID: <CAEPbyeM5sdsZdCoXe0cT+dTn0=2+F9RNwVEPjW4KdjCV=w5q=A@mail.gmail.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Thanks, Paul. As we have been discussing this last week at the AMS meeting, while the vortex did split and the temperature gradient reversed over the polar cap, a reversal of the zonal circulation did not occur at the 10 hPa level anywhere equatorward of 70N, so this event will not be classified as a major event by the current criteria at 10 hPa and 60N. We'll also use this opportunity as a plug for our current efforts associated with SPARC in updating the standard SSW definition. Some of these efforts include defining minor warmings such as this one more clearly. More information can be found at our new email list (subscribe on the left hand side): https://sites.google.com/site/stratosphericwarmings/ We had an interesting group discussion at AMS and will have at least one other at the EGU General Assembly this spring in Vienna (possibly also at IUGG and/or AOGS) and hope to see you all at one of these gatherings. Cheers, Amy Butler Ed Gerber Dann Mitchell ------------------------------ ---------------------------------------- Message: 1 Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 14:52:53 -0500 From: "Paul A. Newman" <Paul.A.Newman@nasa.gov> To: <strat_list@nwra.com> Subject: [strat_list] Wave-2 stratospheric warming to usher in the New Year! Message-ID: <A47F2125-B25B-4DAF-8FA6-E5FB0E261BE0@nasa.gov> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252" Hey All, There is a wave-2 warming that is developing. Should be maximizing around Jan. 3. See http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/arctic/ for maps. Yours, Paul Dr. Paul A. Newman Code 610.0 NASA/GSFC Greenbelt, MD 20771 ph: (301) 614-5985 fx: x-5903 http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Newman/ ?The race may not always be to the swift nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet? - D. Runyon

Meanwhile, the US is getting bombarded with brutal cold air. I suspect this warming in the stratosphere and split PVs played a higher role than most realize.

Berlin model is acting strange. not sure whats going on. Goes from a split PV at 10hpa at 00hr To a reformed PV 24 hours later. Am I missing something?

The MJO effects the planetary waves, which can propagate poleward, depending on the phase, the waves form and the potential heat is there waiting to effect the strat level. That is how I perceive it to work. anybody can interject, please do. this is my 3rd year following so I am not the expert on this still.

Makes me think the signal is MJO related.

Just something I noticed. There is a pattern of warming every 4-5 weeks, it seems once we get to the strat season. So just extrapolating, the next one would be end of Jan, beginning of Feb. gaining more heat each time.

Yeah qbo data on Berlin shows. Westerly qbo starting at upper stratosphere. Now. Would take several months to peak at 20mb level.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng The temperature spike is pretty significant, to me should be enough to be a sudden stratosphere WARMING event. 25° difference in a matter of days. Do we even have a clear definition of a SSW yet?

Yeah i 2nd that. the 3D models are unreal and unique to this thread. I hope you are patenting your software.

Concerned over the MJO projections. Dies into the Circle of Death right as it nears Phase 7.

By definition, are we seeing a Canadian warming? Only seen a few papers talking about it. Guess it depends on who's definition you use. Lol! http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/papers/Butleretal_BAMS2014_submit.pdf Canadian warmings (early winter warmings marked by a poleward shift of the Aleutian high) But different studies implement these classifications in different ways. For example, some studies (e.g., Charlton and Polvani 2007) classify Canadian warmings as major warmings if a circulation reversal occurs, while others (Labitzke 1977) argue against this based on differences in synoptic development.