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stodge

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  1. Evening all Not really a lot to be said about tonight's output as there's a strong common theme. The current LP shifts west and then elongates south west back into the Atlantic and sends energy south and west to build a new long elongated trough - it's a pattern we've seen before and basically it's what happens when you get heights to the north trying to push south and heights to the south trying to push north. A succession of LP move close to the British Isles through next week maintaining the unsettled and wet theme with a risk of snow to higher areas midweek as a little feature crosses southern Britain. 12Z ECM offers finally a sign of the jet pushing back north but it's a long way from a done deal and 12Z GFS OP maintains a largely unsettled evolution well into FI. Very early hints around mid month of something more settled but far too far off to be taken seriously at this time. The GFS OP rainfall numbers suggest another 3-4 inches of rain widely across the south and west of England, Wales and the Pennines (possibly as snow) in the next 10 days so flooding concerns remain.
  2. Evening all To put a little meat on the bones of some of the rather brief comments... The deep LP dominates the weather over the Easter weekend sitting either over Ireland or just to the west so rain or showers for many, driest in the east. After Easter, we then see the trough elongate and disrupt between heights from the north west coming south and heights trying to push north from the south. The elongated trough sends a series of LP over southern Britain on a southerly tracking jet so more rain, not too cold though not that warm either. Any hints of something more settled are far too far out to be given much credence at this point. We need to see a break in the trough which would promote heights and that may come as a deeper trough stalls in far off mid Atlantic. Next week looks all about shallower features pushing through in the trough.
  3. Evening all An uninspiring lead in to Easter weekend with the invigorated trough forming a deep LP for the time of year (960 MB or lower) over Ireland. The LP wander sround the British Isles over the weekend before most modesl disrupt it south early next week. GFS OP was on its own last night and is so again this evening keeping enough energy in the Atlantic to develop further LP in an evolution reminiscent of a west-based negative NAO. The 12Z GFS and GEM OP runs continue to pursue very different evolutions even at T+180. The rainfall numbers continue to suggest southern and western Britain will bear the brunt of the weekend deluges.
  4. Evening all While those wanting sunshine and warmth have latched on to the GFS 12Z OP and Control runs like a drowning person to a lifebelt, the fact is GFS is on its own currently. It may have correctly spotted a trend and kudos if it has but it's not a trend the other models are seeing yet. The next few days are now getting resolved with the LP deepening as it moves SE to the southwest of the British Isles by midweek and then withdrawing west as the Easter long weekend begins bringing in a mild SW'ly airflow but an unsettled and unstable airflow with showers or longer spells of rain and I suspect the odd t'storm can't be ruled out. By next Monday, the start of April, the LP is starting to fill and sink south but as heights rise to the north west from Greenland, the LP reinvigorates slightly and comes back NE across south east England as a NE'ly develops. Many of the models then see a N'ly setting up between the Scandinavian trough and heights over Greenland. GFS offers a different synoptic evolution once we get past Easter (and again worth stating this is well into FI) and that's basically a west-based negative NAO develops with enough residual energy to expand the trough south west back into the Atlantic. If you want a synoptic example of chalk vs cheese here are the 12Z OP runs from GFS and GEM at T+240. It doesn't look that great up to Easter in all honesty with daytime maxima 12-14c at best in the south and east and plenty of ground and air frost especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
  5. Evening all Still some questions to be answered about the trough this week. The first LP moves SE towards the SW approaches and then a second more vigorous feature follows to create a quite intense LP but where? Some models keep it to the west - others have it directly over the British Isles and even at T+72 we're still struggling for some form of clarity. The post-Easter evolution seems to have the LP filling in situ and then a push of heights from the NW though to be fair that's not universally the case - 12Z GFS Control goes in a different direction - but there's little sign of any prolonged dry weather and to be honest our best prospect looks to be strong northern blocking. The 12Z GFS OP rainfall accumulations don't look promising either with the NE of England joining the rain fest this evening.
  6. Evening all Still a lot to be resolved about next week's LP and frankly FI starts as early as Tuesday as there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether the LP will sit out just to the west of us or drop more or less right over southern Britain. To be fair, the net effect is much the same - rain, showers, more rain, more showers. Can we rule out thunderstorms if we get a more S'ly flow? I suspect not. Can we rule out snow on northern mountains if we get a more E'ly flow? I suspect not. Longer term, ECM 12Z OP again goes its own way to an extent bult the general trend seems to be for the LP to fill more or less in situ and for heights to build from both the west and the north. Will we get an E'ly or N'ly in the first half of April? To quote Mr Tom Jones "It's not unusual" and both are modelled on the 12Z synoptic evolution. A high amplitude MJO in phase 8/1 certainly suggests we 'll see our airflow sourced from one of those directions and the northern blocking, so often a feature of early spring, is much in evidence with GFS, not for the first run of late, offering a potent N'ly for the first weekend of April and as we know these can bring considerable accumulations of snow for high ground. The rainfall (or might that be snowfall?) numbers look horrendous for northern Scotland this evening but perhaps not quite as bad for southern and western England. Loks like there could be quite a respectable fall of snow for Highland and parts of Grampian midweek coming.
  7. Evening all Not a huge amount of change over the past 24 hours - the weekend's chillier interlude replaced from Monday by more encroaching LP from the west and north west and this deepens into a significant LP which, according to UKM and GEM, ends up as a significant storm over southern and south western Britain - a central pressure of 960 MB isn't that common this far south at the end of March. From there, we start to see some divergence - some models have the LP filling in situ, others have a more definite shift south ushering in an E'ly but with most of northern Europe now above freezing by day we aren't talking anything too severe but perhaps disappointing and currently those looking for a warm and dry Easter weekend are going to need a miracle. ECM 12Z OP perhaps the mosr divergent keeping the LP but clear signs of a strengthening of northern blocking at T+240. Northern blocking at the end of March/beginning of April isn't unusual by any stretch but can be hard to shift once in place. The rainfall accumulations off the 12Z GFS OP aren't that encouraging for the south west with still nearly three inches likely over Devon and parts of Cornwall before Easter and temperatures also disappointing with daytime maxima around the mid teens at best in the south east and plenty of frost especially for Scotland and of course hill snow can't be ruled out.
  8. Evening all As @Uncertainty points out, 12Z ECM OP looks on its own tonight. Once this weekend's chillier interlude passes, the negatively aligned trough comes in from the north west by Monday and by Wednesday the LP is more or less right over the top of the British Isles and the accumulated precipation numbers on the 12Z GFS OP aren't pretty with another three inches of rain for the south west by Easter Saturday. The "hope" is the LP fills in situ or just to the west and we get a slow improvement. Into far FI and fans of warm and dry conditions get their bit of eye candy as the jet is pushed well to the north and HP builds in - the ensembles are rolling out slowly on meteociel so I don't know if the OP is an outlier. ECM OP pushes the LP quickly to the south and evolves a strong build of heights to the NE and a SE'ly airflow into Easter. 12Z GEM OP at T+240 has a shallow elongated trough which offers something drier for the south east but not much improvement elsewhere. The idea of a NE'ly for Easter seems to have been discarded for now.
  9. KTtom The exact position of the LP is going to be important but the net effect will probably still be the same. If it ends up to the west, it'll be milder for us all but with rain or showers moving in a cyclonic pattern from south west to north east. If we end up with the LP over us, we'll probably generate our own showers especially in the south and west with thunder and hail but in the north with E'ly winds more cloud and longer spells of rain with snow on northern mountains. The least likely scenario is the LP to the south but not to be disregarded at this time.
  10. Evening all An early look at tonight's 12Z output. The path through to the end of the week seems set - after an almost early summer like day tomorrow, it's downhill all the way as an LP weakens and moves SE into the North Sea introducing a not terribly potent N'ly but it will take temperatures back below average and be quite a shock to the system. The early part of next week, as you might expect, is still far from resolved but there seem to be two scenarios in town. The GFS OP offers a build of heights to the north and the trough moving SE to the west of the British Isles leaving us in an E'ly flow with the north and west fairly dry but rain never far away from the south and south east and a switch to the NE offers the "promise" of something colder with plenty of ground and air frost in northern areas.. The other option keeps a lot of energy close to the British Isles and basically LP takes up residence over England. That doesn't bode well for those wanting a respite from the high rainfall totals of recent times. Indeed, GEM keeps the LP right up to Easter with periods of rain or showers for all and little in the way of spring sunshine or warmth. GFS has stuck to its guns the past two or three days but looks on its own currently.
  11. If you want a dry April, the best way is to have lots of northern blocking with strong HP over Scandinavia keeping the jet far to the south and the LP over Europe. Some hints of that in tonight's 12Z CFS though the LP is never that far away from the south west.
  12. Evening all Far too early to be "calling" Easter - it looks as though we will get a brief N'ly next weekend as a transient mid-Atlantic ridge breaks the LP sequence and with a continuing signal for heights to the far north, the negative alignment of what looks a vigorous LP system coming out of North America looks a pre-cursor to potential trough disuption in the days immediately before Easter. A lot to be resolved on any energy distribution but those fearing an unsettled and potentially wet Easter weekend, especially for southern and western parts, may not be incorrect at this time but there's a very long way to go on this one just yet. The 10HPA charts suggest whatever zonal wind there is will be very light and the jet stream inclines to a more southerly track over western Europe.
  13. Evening all While those of us who enjoy looking at interesting synoptics may be more thrilled about T+240 charts than some, we all know they are beyond reliable and not to be taken too seriously. There is though more than a hint in this evening's output of "something" happening as we approach Easter. The first clue is the re-alignment of the trough, at the end of the week as heights start to develop south from the Pole and the PV sets up shop over Siberia. The LP dives SE into Scandinavia and we start to see a more WNW'ly airflow. In the week leading up to Easter, could we then see trough disruption to the south as heights continue to build to the north? Northern blocking in late March and early April - hardly unusual in all honesty. There are teases of a chilly E'ly but I suspect it won't be as dramatic but for those looking for a prolonged drier spell head north - the south is likely to remain susceptible to rain .
  14. Evening all To be fair, if you're interested in unusual synoptics or want a good spell of dry weather, there's not much for you in tonight's offerings at least in the short term. The next 10 days offer a bit of sun, a bit of rain, a bit of warmth but nothing to worry about too much. We might see a 16 or 17c over East Anglia next weekend if all goes well. The pattern which kicked in on January 22nd has broadly speaking been maintained, what I would describe as on the wet side of benign. Hints on some of the GFS members (including the OP) of a break in that pattern as the PV finally edges over to central northern Canada and we get heights and warmer air into Greenland which changes the pattern over us to a more traditional battleground of warmer vs colder airmasses and as we approach Easter the colder air wins temporarily but this is a long way from the reliable (the earliest hint, the PV starting to move west is at T+192) and only eye candy at present but it would be the law of sod to have a much colder regime come in for Easter.
  15. Evening all MJO forecast to enter Phase 7 at high amplitude early next week and then, as per usual, start to decline as it approaches Phase 8 in 10-12 days. Can anyone with the composites see if the current model output mirrors these composites? The rainfall patterns are consistent with a SW'ly flow so not good for the Lakes, North Wales or South West Scotland but much drier further south and east. Not much of a signal that I'm seeing tonight for a significant pattern change before Easter. On the stratosphere, what has surprised me this winter has been the rapid recovery from near reversals or, as now, more defined reversals. That would be consistent with a colder strat which is in turn one of the signals for climate change so the question for the future will be, even if a more turbulent and active atmosphere encourages more warming events, will they be strong enough to facilitate a strong enough SSW with strong enough downwelling to promote significant tropospheric impacts?
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