Chris101

Just for clarification,we were never getting the front from Darcy, we are getting a moisture wave from Darcy's main front, this could be seen in the fax charts when people were talking about why the fronts were so far away in Europe. Hope that helps

All going as per warning and as expected, West Ipswich.

Images of Anglesey Public Group | Facebook M.FACEBOOK.COM By Foel farm Menai straight, today @ 11.57 It's on the water.

Biggin Hill showing 110 Kph 68mph. Cant believe I have to edit to change auto correct from Biggins

I reckon I stand a good chance of the same here in Ipswich. Ciara only managed a top gust of 57mph and squall lines were tatty and weak at this location. It certainly wouldn't take much.

Still plenty of time for the inevitable tweaks in all of the outputs in the next few days. Any small change could lead to a bit of longevity, slightly colder feed. When the ridge builds it will do as it wants and not what the models say it should.

Gfs 06z, get the pop corn out. Winter model entertainment at it's best Like a massive pendulum that wont stop swinging.

All eyes on the green line, needs a kick up to see ECM respond i think.

Whats clearly coming into view is the mjo push, now will it be enough push, i'm not sure who has performed better on levels of amplification this year, but we need the gfs to be more in line with its slightly better mjocast. A big eye on what the heights are coming up against now aswell, lots of clutter to the North right now bringing it to a halt.

It doesn't look too bad, even though the cold is flowing into Eastern Europe it looks to get cut off in an ok position for a fairly good feed.

At my age I've seen it on numerous occasions, warm to freeze. Like a few have said it's the small difference between wrong side and right side, again in my years of models imo I would rather see crap synoptic for cold at long range slowly nudge towards something in better favour than the continuous glory charts slimming down to a sudden fail. When people say look for trends in the models, it's hard to see it but that is a trend and not for good, so again the best hope is for something to buck that trend. So as it goes will we get from warm to cold or not enough push and stay mild, I use the word push because just at the right moment the mjo push begins to show. Now we really begin to have hope.

Still stands, maybe more 168ish Looking at the 6z gfs the euro high is doing what we looked for the Siberian high to do a few weeks back. Inadvertently the Euro high could do the job better imo when heights build west. Unseasonable warmth to cold??

Even the analogies in here make no sense

So here we stand, models showing nothing favourable, anomalies rubbish, ensembles with no promise. Given the performances this winter I'm surprised more aren't shouting game on, this is probably the best chance yet of seeing a big flip to cold I'll go for a punt, 144/168 on the 12th/13th

Sounds like it was a rumour and all got out ok. Looking at posts after.