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EGHH

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Everything posted by EGHH

  1. For those in Poole, Bournemouth, Christchurch etc. enjoying this lovely cold rain (about the only weather I actually hate, I mean, seriously what's worse than 1-5c and rain, totally pointless, bah!), cast your minds back to 2009 - I think it was, possibly 2008. I remember it reasonably well if not the date. Very similar situation to this. Low in the channel, occlusion pushing up from the South, started off as rain. My business partner and I were going to see a client in his rather modified Subaru Imprezza. As we were heading over to Boscombe, it started to get a bit sleety. He was going too fast for my liking but I kept my mouth shut. Going down Ashley Road in Boscombe it flicked like a switch to snow. Within about 100m we went over the railway bridge but there was a stationary bus about 200m in front. Although only doing 25mph or so we couldn't stop and wen't into a car behind the bus. It hammered it down with snow for about 2-3 hours after that. We picked up the damage and managed to limp the car to the Client, did the meeting (which was rather surreal) and then tried to head to his flat. But we only got as far as Bournemouth as the radiator was leaking like a burst water main and it was still so icy everywhere. We spent about another hour trying to repair it well enough on the roadside before giving up and going for a KFC. By evening time it had all melted again. Will we see that again today? Well we won't be crashing in his car because that incident wrote it off hehe. Oh well, hopefully this was a mildly amusing diversion for the fellow south coastians who are trying to find the first hints of sleet before it maybe turns to snow for a while.
  2. Looking into the future (a decidedly dodgy endeavour at the moment, given uncertainties in the near term), the GFS 12z goes for a mildly interesting evolution by sending the residual vortex from Canda into the atlantic by next weekend, manifesting itself as a sub 930mb dartboard low. Thus heralding the arrival of [sorry for swearing] wet, windy and mild : http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130121/12/123/airpressure.png I think I'll forget about that for now, though, too much of interest in the next 36-48 hours!
  3. Looks very interesting tomorrow. If I'm reading this right, we have a wave on an occlusion creating a small depression which then quickly occludes. All "on our patch". Below is an animated gif snapshot from the high res models for 12z tomorrow. Should be NAE-NMM-UKV The UKV looks like a better resolved NMM while the NAE seems to be beating it's own path. I guess MOGREPS is highly useful in this situation and given what Ian is saying, there are several possibilities on the table and the best they can do is make a prediction basd on the most likely outcome - yeah good luck with that one! PS Happy b/day GTLTW!
  4. It's the precipitation over a 6 hour period. It's showing the potential for some week convective showers I think. Basically a few flakes in the wind from 6am till noon.
  5. What I've noticed with the snow here is that the ground it fell on just wasn't cold. We've only had 1 night that really dipped below 0c in the week leading up to the snow, which is quite unusual. So underneath the snow is a lot of mud. When I was walking on it yesterday it was really weird to find the mud still in liquid form and melting the bottom layer of the snow. In fact it was quite tricky as you couldn't tell where the mud was so you can suddenly sink up to your shins in a whitey brown sludge. Certainly here, the snow is getting attacked on both sides!
  6. 20 mm of precipitated water (ie rain equivalent) is very roughly 20 cm of snow. 20 mm of snow is 2 cm of snow. There you go, clear as mud !!!
  7. Here's the raw NAE 12z T48 snow accumulation chart with an easier to read scale. 10cm over a significant part of England and Wales.
  8. Great pics Iceberg! I love that area. In 2010 I walked from the "car park" on the top road at Spread Eagle, the bti before Melbury Abbas by the airfield, down in to Compton village. Spent more time on my backside than on foot... Bet zigzags was er interesting this morning too. As for me today I can report 4 cm in my garden but 10+ cm in plenty of places on a morning stroll (not far from Bournemouth Airport). Saw heavy snow, moderate snow, light snow, snizzle, graupel, rain, just about the lot! Edit: Can also confirm I've got Sky working again by climbing a ladder and sweeping the dish off. Thought it was a stupid idea myself, byt SWMBO was certain I needed to do this.
  9. Last update from me. I'm very pleased with the way it's going. Very much as the meso models have been suggesting. Latest UKV (or is it UK4 - I'm not so sure now!) on Met Office website keeps more precipitation over Southern Dorset, pretty much continuous all the way into Saturday infact. Wind has definitely picked up here. Temp 3.8 , Dew Point -3.5 IMBY. The low dew point makes it feel very raw indeed. Good luck all, whatever your preference! And thanks again to the mods who do a fabulous job keeping this place running.
  10. You can see the fronts on here. The upper front, which is ahead of the main front, slows down and grinds to a halt. The main front catches it up: http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html
  11. Just to clear up this main frontal band issue. What is showing on the radar is the main band: It's a bit wider at the moment, but it will probably bunch up as it slows down. Here is the predicted position by 3am: And expected temperatures by 3am:
  12. 22z surface analysis: Note the dewpoints starting to fall. Hurn now showing -2 dew point. Note that the temperatures in Poole, Bournemouth etc. are not due to drop until after midnight.
  13. Here's the 18z NAE with the patent pending EasyReadYouSnowLevel colour changes for the projected snow depth at 18z tomorrow: 18z And the 12z for comparison.
  14. As far as I can see the temperature profiles across the south coast match what the mesoscale models predicted earlier. The same models show the temperatures falling very slowly if at all until between 12 and 3am, when the drop off rapidly. So, I'm at a loss to understand why there is a constant stream of posters who seem to appear from down here to either moan about downgrades, the current temperature or look for some kind of reassurance. How about everybody waits until tomorrow evening before moaning about not having any snow? If you haven't got any on the ground by then, then you'll have every right to have a moan. But surely not now? Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen. Waiting and seeing with the Mk 1 eyeball is surely the best way forward. Anyway, rant over. The 18z NAE should start dribbling out soon. Hard to imagine there being too many changes now. Latest UKV seems to up the precipitation on the front a bit from the last run. Also shows some potentially hefty showers around once the frontal wave develops into the depression.
  15. Here you go. Today's precipitation is just the upper front (the top section of the front has sheared and moved ahead of the lower down bit for want of a better definition)
  16. The latest surface plot: You can see the Southerly wind that has elevated the temperatures along the coast from roughly Lymington Westwards. When the wind swings back round and the normal diurnal cooling takes effect, these temperatures should drop back down. What I find really interesting is the low dew points looking across the channel. Even -1 in the middle of the channel.
  17. Although it's a rather pointless game of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey trying to predict accumulations at this point, I've changed the colour scheme of the NAE snow accumulation chart for 6pm Friday to make it a bit clearer what it's actually showing - putrid colours maybe, but a lot easier to pick the shades out than the differing shades of pink! Edit, just noticed that they say mm on the scale - that's actually cm. Hmmm, you know, actually I can think of a few things...
  18. Just wind direction, strength and the inflow/outflow balance of the front. We'll need to nowcast that really.
  19. Yes. Looking at curren temperatures and precipitation across the region, it's fair to say that we're already feeling the affects of the warmer air pushing in from the atlantic. The line of precipitation currently falling seems to be a trough or a sheared off piece of energy and should meander Eastwards throughout the rest of day bringing light rain sleet and snow to many. I think temperatures will max out in the next hour or two and will then fall into tonight - not really recovering much if at all tomorrow. Again, just thinking about Dorset.
  20. In basic terms as the front pushes in there will be a warm-ish plume ahead of it. This will eventually mix out as the front continues to move East against the cold block. But, as the precipitation falls, it drags cold air from higher up down with it. The heavier it falls the colder it will get at the surface (to a point obviously). So, tomorrow it depends on how heavily the precipitation starts and finishes. If the front eases in and eases out then it'll be a slushy mix down here to start with and to finish with but with snow in the middle. If it's heavy for most of the time then most of it will be snow. And... it also depends on how much of the boundary layer is modified by air dragged up off the channel - this also can modify how slushy it is down on the coast. But we're only talking about 10-20 miles of the immediate coast here. Inland of that should be all snow I think. I should qualify that I'm talking in terms of Dorset here.
  21. Interesting that the 12z runs so far are less progressive and the precipitation totals are perhaps slightly muted compared to the earlier runs - nothing more than mildly interesting at this range, of course. Love the way the warm front gets smashed, sorry I mean mixed out ;-) , on the UKMO as per the attached animation. That might be the clue as to why the 12z runs are less progressive...
  22. For those that have been sweating the NAE's wobbles over the last few days, this may be an interesting read : http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/ukv Note the graphics in particular - the poor old NAE looks a bit blocky doesn't it! I'm fairly certain (but not 100%) that a section of the UKV output can be viewed on the Met Office website by going to the Map section and chosing precipitation. Attached is the farthest out it goes at the moment - Thursday evening. The front is just starting to push in.
  23. It doesn't hurt to stay grounded. I tend to look at the short range meso models like this: They are initialized using a subset of one of the Global Models' data but after that they pretty much ignore what's happening outside their little 3d box of the atmosphere. The global models model the whole atmosphere (with small exceptions), over the whole globe so have a better chance of modelling the differing interactions between the broad macroscale features. The little mesoscale models don't need to know what's going on outside their "box" but as the time increments, this causes added error as features from outside their "box" that later should be inside the "box" aren't included in the modelling. So pretty accurate at T0 to T12, generally accurate T12 to T24 and starting to potentially become inacurrate T24 to T48. This is the main reason they go no further. That and the fact that increased resolution isn't always helpful, depending on the instability of the modelling system etc. In effect T48 on the NAE can be like T168 on a global model - getting very FI-ish Well that's wot I fink anyway!!!
  24. Just to follow on from my PDF, the 12z GFS is very similar to the 0z GFS, perhaps increasing the precipitation amounts but keeping the snow distribution much the same around the region. Sticking just to the "first event" for now, that is.
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