southbank

Looking at the 12z / faxes looks like unfortunate timings with the cold front moving south and the Atlantic low moving in keeps the low on a south of the uk track - just bad luck really. off topic - it’s been a fascinating chase - although feels like it’s been going on for weeks but a thank you to all the inputs on both sides of the coin - looks like very much model fatigue setting in and just bad luck the pieces not there to give icing on the cake with a noteworthy snow event. time to take a break and come back for anything in Feb that may be of interest

If those fronts could only straddle the M4. Corridor that really would be a news worthy event - as it stands looks like northern France / Normandy into Belgium are in line for a pasting as the moisture on the front boundaries will be where the action will be - looks like the cold front sweeping south has little moisture on it and it keeps the Atlantic low from encroaching on our neck of the woods - typical heads you lose tails you lose for UK - talk about bad timing - but the margins are small a 50/100 miles shift north and south coast may be back in play where in the grand scheme of micro scheme is tiny

Apologies for my ignorance - is the Ec46 updated daily or weekly . Just seems reading the updates people kindly put on here it flips about all over the place - specially wk 3/4 . Is it renown for being a good indicator over a ; week period ?

Don’t think we have had an event like the one forecast the next few days . As much I would like there to be a reasonable covering (12z ECM ) it does look more likely going by Meto that it be wet non settling snow we see in london area - we won’t know until we start getting reports as the low passes thru

Couldn’t agree more Crewe - been on here long enough that usually one would say mild would be default back - but what’s so intriguing is the NH profile and just how different it is at the start of this winter then I can remember post 2010 . 62/63 famous winter was largely driven by + PNA wonder if the same is driving this

4 days of snow cover ( paths / roads mostly clear) shows what a HLB around Greenland does for UK winter Synoptics . In 50 years I can prob count only 5-7 occasions I’ve seen snow stick around this long in london last time 2010 . So gonna make the most of a glorious winter scene - it’s sensational today in the cold sun

Very Christmassy early “ attempt” at a commute -alas no thameslink so wfh

Did we all learn nothing from last year ? Enfact the last 18 + years (2012)FI always starts at 72 + anything more at winter leads to toys = prams= out

Totally agree John , found that video excellent and very informative and shows just how complex these situations are .

small world lol - i went to St Joseph college at crown point , havent seen the back of it nearly 32 years prob all change around there

Fine margins - deep cold level and this could of been up there with 91 without the deep cold - but Darcy was the trigger low but seemed to aloft warm air as well to cap the shower activity as this had been a weak Thames Streamer still some areas have totally max out in other sreas

intensity now picking up and prob 5 in flake size on voldermort scale nice to see finally day 3

day 3 of the 2021 easterly sprinkle - despite having showers all night we probably reaching 0.5 cm now . so sadly one of the weakest Thames steamers events , goes to show to nothing is set in stone despite wind direction and cold uppers. many are asking why so weak when the potential is there , must be Darcy is still too close and effecting convection ??? Real shame could if had 3 solid days of snow under ice days which is very rare in london. still beautiful and each cold snap is unique

does feel in SW London we are just one heavy shower away from a decent covering - TYypical a very rare ice day but not moisture around except for tiny flakes

that do me !!! yep 09 was prob a once in a life time experience for a london borough having 10 inches that night

yep 3/4 here in Sutton on the Voldermore Scale LOL

i still remember that piece you put together afterwards explaining what went wrong your end - thats the thing about this site that sometimes get lost in the ramps and tantrums that its a great place to learn and develop your knowledge. Rather than moan im more interested what happen yesterday that made the outcome different to what the models had thought and too some areas a bust - much more fun than toys throwing

to be honest FI starts at 72 hrs as the models have been flipping all over the place - it did seem the last time i checked in friday that the breakdown had moved away from a battle ground event to a wimp but this may change again - ECM did have a day 9 event for us in SE but thats very very much JFF one thing i guess the snow we are getting is powder snow ? as the dew points are so low hence the icing cake effect here in London?

yes so far only icing for majority of london . North and south , was disappointing as i thought london was in with a chance of 2 or 3 cm initially rather than a bust but hey ho thats part of a snow chase its not confirmed til it happens great photos from around the region , love seeing those and glad some on here managed to break their drought

bit of head scratchy as the condition do seem ok for a bit more meat to this but as you say models not showing that currently nor Meto

@Paul Sherman think we broke your 2009 record for the most hours of polythene balls type snow - such a bizzare phenomenon - but we had 10 hours non stop

Ah I was moving that day from Beckenham to Sutton . Actually woke up to several inches in beckenham worried about the removal men not getting up the road. Was all gone by lunchtime . That February 2005 easterly caused many disagreements on here with its “ its a cold easterly “

Back to snizzle again here

Thanks Yamkin to be honest us in this part of the world probably do better than front moving away and allowing Thames streamer setting up as so far it’s been pants

The heaviest it’s been all morning but just grass and tree the snow is sticking too. not expecting more fun and games . Have to wait what showers develop tonight hopefully we still in a chance of a Thames streamer setting up @kold weather ??