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iamgazza

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Everything posted by iamgazza

  1. The warning (MetO) is for Thursday afternoon so I'd assume not. Nice start to the day though.
  2. Agree we do need the ECM on board, BUT it's not game over until we've got some sort of agreement. Yes it has the best verification stats, but last time I checked it wasn't 100%. Very exciting times and I await 6z with interest. What a time to be alive.
  3. Certainly enough to make me a little nervous. Only a little bit mind. Important 12zs later.
  4. 1 things for sure - It's been a great start from a model watching perspective for the upcoming silly season. Awaiting 0z with interest.
  5. Over the last 4 weeks, the models have consistently underestimated how hard the cold is to shift to our east. It's finally progressed this way. Can we be confident that by this time next week the cold will be gone?
  6. Best run I've seen for what feels like forever. Tonight's runs are going to be good! ECM inc!
  7. For what it's worth - I think we're going to get strange results for the next few days from all models. Even if ensembles are clustered colder\mild - I also think we'll see them jumping about. I can't remember the last time I saw such differences from all models at such short time frames which tells me all I need to know. One things for sure, it's keeping me glued to the screen! Great time to be watching.
  8. One thing is for sure... we've got to be getting to decider time now. Tonight's runs will make or break and identify the culprit. I too am with you on the Euro's... Critical runs tonight.
  9. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/severe-winters
  10. I drove to Windsor Park and parked in a car park there. Had pretty much 360* lightning show a few weeks back.
  11. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=
  12. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=
  13. In theory - Nothing. I shouldn't worry to much. I have been pretty bullish to friends\family that anything that falls later today will be snow. I remain confident. MET now have us under a yellow warning for snow (mentions hail\rain too) The warning for later today was issued this morning, which indicates the headaches they are having with everything going on. Lot's to be positive about as we head into the weekend and into next week too.
  14. Because the weather will do, what the weather will do - it's what keeps things interesting
  15. For what it's worth I think the GFS handles storm tracks much better within the 72hr period and as such it would make logical sense to me it's probably got a better idea on the next step going forward. (#strawclutch)
  16. Haha lets hope you've not cursed the run by praising it so early
  17. Based on the current output, that shouldn't be to tricky lol.
  18. Loving the estofex forecast... "An alternative scenario is that not much convection will be surface-based, and the bulk of the activity will be elevated, reducing the overall severe threat. Because of this uncertainty, an level 3 was not issued at this time." Could we see a level 3 warning?
  19. Agreed - I'm not fussed if we have METO on board or not when it comes to this stuff. Interesting coouple of days model watching hopefully resulting in a cracking (See what I did there) weekend showdown.
  20. This morning's runs sum up nicely what was been said yesterday (by the wise, sensible people) about how uncertain the outlook is at the moment. It's frustrating to watch if you crave snow (and I do!) but it's also interesting (which is the other reason I'm here) I remain on the fence, ready to jump down on the snow laden colder side... but todaytomorrow and possibly into Wednesday I shall be a bag of nerves. All to play for... just please take in what the professionals are saying - reliablility at the moment is 72hrs... Anything past that and we'll get a range of outcomes (snowno snow) but look at the bigger picture and be patient before writing winter off.
  21. I'm reserving judgement until saturday nightsunday morning's runs. A lot to play for currently and I feel the models aren't coping very well at the moment.
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