iamgazza
Members-
Posts
33 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by iamgazza
-
The warning (MetO) is for Thursday afternoon so I'd assume not. Nice start to the day though.
-
Yet
- 2,572 replies
-
Model output discussion - winter proper underway
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Love the rogue Xmas day run lol.- 2,328 replies
-
- 3
-
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agree we do need the ECM on board, BUT it's not game over until we've got some sort of agreement. Yes it has the best verification stats, but last time I checked it wasn't 100%. Very exciting times and I await 6z with interest. What a time to be alive. -
Certainly enough to make me a little nervous. Only a little bit mind. Important 12zs later.
-
1 things for sure - It's been a great start from a model watching perspective for the upcoming silly season. Awaiting 0z with interest.
-
Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Over the last 4 weeks, the models have consistently underestimated how hard the cold is to shift to our east. It's finally progressed this way. Can we be confident that by this time next week the cold will be gone? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
iamgazza replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best run I've seen for what feels like forever. Tonight's runs are going to be good! ECM inc! -
Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016
iamgazza replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For what it's worth - I think we're going to get strange results for the next few days from all models. Even if ensembles are clustered colder\mild - I also think we'll see them jumping about. I can't remember the last time I saw such differences from all models at such short time frames which tells me all I need to know. One things for sure, it's keeping me glued to the screen! Great time to be watching. -
Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards
iamgazza replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One thing is for sure... we've got to be getting to decider time now. Tonight's runs will make or break and identify the culprit. I too am with you on the Euro's... Critical runs tonight. -
Model output discussion - 1st December onwards
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/severe-winters -
Model output discussion - 1st December onwards
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Outlier or Trend setter... lol -
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
iamgazza replied to Thunderbolt_'s topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I drove to Windsor Park and parked in a car park there. Had pretty much 360* lightning show a few weeks back. -
Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
iamgazza replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess= -
Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
iamgazza replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess= -
Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In theory - Nothing. I shouldn't worry to much. I have been pretty bullish to friends\family that anything that falls later today will be snow. I remain confident. MET now have us under a yellow warning for snow (mentions hail\rain too) The warning for later today was issued this morning, which indicates the headaches they are having with everything going on. Lot's to be positive about as we head into the weekend and into next week too. -
Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Because the weather will do, what the weather will do - it's what keeps things interesting -
Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For what it's worth I think the GFS handles storm tracks much better within the 72hr period and as such it would make logical sense to me it's probably got a better idea on the next step going forward. (#strawclutch) -
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
iamgazza replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Haha lets hope you've not cursed the run by praising it so early -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Based on the current output, that shouldn't be to tricky lol. -
Loving the estofex forecast... "An alternative scenario is that not much convection will be surface-based, and the bulk of the activity will be elevated, reducing the overall severe threat. Because of this uncertainty, an level 3 was not issued at this time." Could we see a level 3 warning?
- 3,744 replies
-
- plume
- thunderstorms
-
(and 4 more)
Tagged with:
-
Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards
iamgazza replied to Jane Louise's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agreed - I'm not fussed if we have METO on board or not when it comes to this stuff. Interesting coouple of days model watching hopefully resulting in a cracking (See what I did there) weekend showdown.- 1,246 replies
-
- thunderstorms
- hail
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes - 10pm -
Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.
iamgazza replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This morning's runs sum up nicely what was been said yesterday (by the wise, sensible people) about how uncertain the outlook is at the moment. It's frustrating to watch if you crave snow (and I do!) but it's also interesting (which is the other reason I'm here) I remain on the fence, ready to jump down on the snow laden colder side... but todaytomorrow and possibly into Wednesday I shall be a bag of nerves. All to play for... just please take in what the professionals are saying - reliablility at the moment is 72hrs... Anything past that and we'll get a range of outcomes (snowno snow) but look at the bigger picture and be patient before writing winter off. -
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
iamgazza replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm reserving judgement until saturday nightsunday morning's runs. A lot to play for currently and I feel the models aren't coping very well at the moment.