Johnp

andymusic Good for cold rain?

Mike Poole I hope people remember this when they start pumping out EC46 charts next winter. Literally a (proven) waste of time.

Aiden2012 Yep, see you in November folks (or maybe summer if there’s a mega heatwave on the way). Another day, another step away from cold blocked charts.

nick sussex Yes, this isn’t the sort of charts I was expecting during a SSW!

Bit of an odd 6z run, with a raging polar vortex. It’s going from bad to worse!

Lukesluckybunch …and didn’t get any better after!

Another wildly different GFS run. This is like pulling teeth, meanwhile we are another day nearer to spring. I know many people don't agree that the micro can impact the macro (if that makes sense) but that pesky low that failed to deliver the goods it initially promised, is now screwing up the overall movement towards blocking to our north that 'should' be happening.

Anyway, a much improved 6z with cold north easterlies from day 10. Let the rollercoaster start again.

P16 shows the kind of setup we need, with a deep cold pool advecting towards us

Just looking at some of the early GEFS runs at day 7, there are still some potential lovely outcomes. Wouldn’t be surprised there was a “wtf” run in the morning.

MJB Hope so - this run could challenge the record CET for Feb.

This is a shocker - virtually all of Europe above 0c at 850hpa

A big problem seems to be, instead of lows moving east and digging southwards, they are all wafting gently polewards and/or westwards. What is causing this odd behaviour? Is it too early for stratospheric impacts?

Looking very springlike around the 16th, should be very pleasant.

Lukesluckybunch It’s the worst run of the day. Spah1 Because by moving north, the low is wafting mild air up across us and Europe.