Johnp
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
andymusic Good for cold rain? -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike Poole I hope people remember this when they start pumping out EC46 charts next winter. Literally a (proven) waste of time. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aiden2012 Yep, see you in November folks (or maybe summer if there’s a mega heatwave on the way). Another day, another step away from cold blocked charts. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex Yes, this isn’t the sort of charts I was expecting during a SSW! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bit of an odd 6z run, with a raging polar vortex. It’s going from bad to worse! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch …and didn’t get any better after! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another wildly different GFS run. This is like pulling teeth, meanwhile we are another day nearer to spring. I know many people don't agree that the micro can impact the macro (if that makes sense) but that pesky low that failed to deliver the goods it initially promised, is now screwing up the overall movement towards blocking to our north that 'should' be happening. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Anyway, a much improved 6z with cold north easterlies from day 10. Let the rollercoaster start again. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
P16 shows the kind of setup we need, with a deep cold pool advecting towards us -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just looking at some of the early GEFS runs at day 7, there are still some potential lovely outcomes. Wouldn’t be surprised there was a “wtf” run in the morning. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
MJB Hope so - this run could challenge the record CET for Feb. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a shocker - virtually all of Europe above 0c at 850hpa -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A big problem seems to be, instead of lows moving east and digging southwards, they are all wafting gently polewards and/or westwards. What is causing this odd behaviour? Is it too early for stratospheric impacts? -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking very springlike around the 16th, should be very pleasant. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch It’s the worst run of the day. Spah1 Because by moving north, the low is wafting mild air up across us and Europe. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Daniel* Maybe not, but I’m sure I’m not alone in having that same sinking feeling as just before the last cold spell went belly up. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Battleground Snow To be fair, it doesn’t say ‘sea level’ either in the Met Office text. It just says lower levels. -
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
CoventryWeather Am I looking at the wrong charts? It’s a terrible run with the southern half of Britain never getting below -4c at 850hpa? -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better dig south of the cold air so far on the 18z -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@feb1991blizzard It’s a stonker. Bank! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pinch of salt required, but a much improved 6z -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep, looks like the PV is going to blow itself out by the first few days of Feb, then we have to see where the cards fall. -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Johnp replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is this the first winter is over post? Things can change very quickly as the 6z run shows later in the run.