The Post-modern Winter

It is indeed all snow up here on Hope Mountain

From Ian Ferguson in the ENSO thread - in reference to the ECM monthly . .

Best inform the Met to shut down Glosea5 for the winter Ian - Peter H has bad vibes and Cpb gets the impression that it's tentative signs for December are way off.

You don't half moan mate - I'm about 7/8 miles from you and we've just had a weather warning issued for this evening/tomorrow and periods of heavy snow/light snow for almost 24 hours starting at 19:00 (via MO). Admittedly you might be a little more marginal than me but what you've stated has no truth in it. About 10 o'clock this morning I woke up to snow falling for a good 15 minutes as you can see below. Cheer up.

Can you hear that BA?? Wait, Just listen. . I think it's the sound of something going over your head. I mean seriously, my reference to IDO PM'ing me is an obvious indicator of a little jesting. .

Not feeling that chart - IDO Pm'd me the 16 day mean for January 14th 1963 and it's showing a strongly westerly flow from a dominant Atlantic

Glad to see we're all on the same page. .

My area following on from 5 hours of heavy snowfall on the Tuesday evening. . Please don't change. .

Just took the dogs for a walk on the land - met with some beefy snow showers. Nice wintry picture up here.

Very heavy snow sticking on all surfaces, including the very wet ground. Met office forecasting heavy snow here until 3 o'clock tomorrow morning.

Think a few posters are confusing their Christmas day associations - it's a time for elves, not trolls.I genuinely feel sorry for those on Christmas day, whose first port of call is to come revel in some schadenfreude on netweather. I sincerely hope they get a little more happiness and positive focus in their lives over the next year. Merry Christmas to one and all.

@MattHugo81: Consistent signs for the strat vortex to become increasingly elongated & eventually split by early 2015 #OneToWatch http://t.co/nurhvHq1qYMmm . . Matt Hugo with a chart to back it up or terrier's usual non-supported claims repeated as an absolute truth? Who to believe guys? (In no way am I saying that Matt is correct but terrier's assertion that "we can forget about a SSW" and "that the polar vortex will strengthen now" jarrs massively with Matt's backed up claim).

You must always be prematurely excited then Mushy. .

Your luck just might be in Terrier. . UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jan 2015 to Thursday 15 Jan 2015: The most likely scenario for the coming New Year is for a continuation of unsettled, and at times, windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning fog in places as well as a local frost - this will be most likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground. However, there is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period, with a period of colder weather possible too. Considering that yesterday any reference to cold had been removed and certain people were fretting, I will certainly take this update.

I agree regarding the mean; even from a fundamentally mathematical point of view I can't see it being of any use initially in the scenarios that many are searching for, i.e. a pattern change. Can anybody more experienced tell me how the mean charts would have looked two weeks before the onset of the late Nov' 2010 cold for instance, or any other relevant cold spell?

Why not mention this to IDO?

In the interests of accuracy, the Met's outlook states a risk of "colder" weather, not "cooler" as stated by IDO (naturally, I assume this an innocent mistake). Considering the ongoing ruckus pertaining to the subjectivity around what can be defined as mild, I think it only fair to point this out. Let's face it, if the MO were referring to mild temperatures and 'a coldie' came in and changed their working to average temps, I imagine there would be quite an outcry from a select few members. Let's not mislead forum viewers IDO - the potential results of cool and cold airmasses over our tiny island are rather different.

As stated consistently by Ian, the above quote from the chief forecaster should be treated with caution however they are clearly seeing something we aren't. I wouldn't place too much focus on the CFS-derived outcome regarding the projected NAO.

Yeah, I grew up in the centre of Chester which is virtually snowless every winter but now live at 750ft with part of my land passing 1050ft. Seen snow every DJF, bar only two months over the past 5 years.

If you're that desperate have a drive up to Bwlchgwyn/Gwynfryn mate. About 20 minutes from you and you'll see something wintry right now. . Nice little dusting up there.

'Westerlies' and the Atlantic dominate in December? Really? I don't think you've ever mentioned this before IRA252 . .

This is no way intended as a slight Gibby, but just two days ago you were saying that you were confident of a cold period over the next three to four weeks. Now you're looking at the absolute opposite end of the spectrum where a set up may occur with absolutely no chance of cold going into weeks 3 and 4 and one which you infer could eat further into winter. You're a poster renowned for objective analysis of the models so I'm slightly confused. Was your talk of cold over the next 3/4 weeks in reference to next weeks high pressure led cold and nothing more substantial. Obviously there has been a shift in direction over the past two days, but not to this degree that I can see?