NorthWest_Snow

temps here are finally dropping off, dew point on marginal -0.7C inc snow and rain showers in ireland moving westwards ahead of a front. be lovely if it made it to the irish sea...but i think if it makes nw scotland, i think its pretty safe to say its fantasy island until it actually gets within striking distance of the uk, no matter, it will die the moment it touches land so it would only be showers anyways i still think it may well break up, before it reaches here due to the 2 lp to the west of it causing it a loss of convection..well its looking a lot better than it did in previous passes, still moving south and i am concerned about how slow that thing is moving tbh

its got some nice streamers coming off it too..big old white clouds been watching them since they came of the system nw of NI bigger clouds. 1am in now, and we have some very strong rotation, and movement se, still has a very noticeable eye, not seeing any break up, there is movement south east, looks like its getting a move on before the approaching fronts..wont hold my breath yet though..it needs to really get a move on

but if you look at the latest pic, it still retains its eye and looks pretty solid to me, with a gradual movement se..but you could be right. oh dear look at the secondary low and its position, but then again if you look at it, that pl was moving nowhere before, and suddenly the secondary low has appeared the pl has begun moving se..i hope we are not seeing its break up ..i fear if the system doesnt get a move on, we could be looking up at a very fast break up

latest image looks a lot better and might i say there is definate movement se

james there you go http://www.sat24.com/gb James M to me it looks like a dodgy sat image, if look at it one side doesnt match up with the other see bottom of the low.

its hard to say what its actually doing the last pass shows some sort of movement there

it depends, if it is actually moving south (it looked like an sat hiccup on last return), we'll see in the next hour if thats the case, it will be fine..if not it will loose it's convectiveness due to the lp swallowing it in effect..what we want is south movement, we have the warmer water it needs to grow those those clouds for better ppn..waiting game i think EDIT: checked the 1230 sat image there is definate movement south, which is not surprising really considing the actual setup in place..i dont think it will destroy itself, its getting bigger its beginning to move south, just how fast it does is another thing..otherwise yes it will blow itself out before it gets to nw scotland..actually its something we should keep an eye on for the next hour..the winds up there are nw, the clouds are blowing in a nw fashion through the channel there..not saying about the pl, just the clouds. so we have a nw and a slight n flow in place

haha actually take a closer look at the wider european sat http://www.sat24.com/ notice the rotation off to the northwest of that polar low? what the hell is that? it looks on reflection like an unclouded lp linking up, maybe just what old pl needs to get moving lmao

it looks like its going to wind itself up to be quite a big pl, if thats the case, the low technically isnt that far away from us about 300 miles northwest mainland scotland? clouds can easily extend up to around 6/700 m and since it isnt so far north it could pick up the warmer waters than that provided by the gulf stream..cloud base could be built quite rapidly..getting carried away again..coz it may burn itself out..but who knows haha thats what i love about nowcasting :lol:

haha no mate i am not saying we'll get hit by a polar low, certainly not that one (my fault i am getting tired, you meant the snow in the south didnt ya? )...i dont think anyone actually knows where the track is HS certainly not for the polar low..they are difficult enough to forecast let alone know where one will end up, as people have said the only way is to nowcast it..i expect like SP said before it will likely blow itself apart where its standing, but the thing it needs we have and we'll have to see if it will begin moving south or not..there is a northerly wind, and watching the map you can see it with the cloud cover. its certainly getting beefier for sure -> http://www.sat24.com/gb

according to meto the snow is now south manchester and moving north i remember a long time back in the early 80's someone said something very similar, i mean we hadnt any snow like now for quite a period..and a pl developed pretty much in the same place as that,and some one said that wont do anything for us prolly go break up ..it too was stationary with an incoming nw lp..the next day lunch time we had 3-4 foot of snow and 15-20ft in drifts in the countryside lol because the pl had dumped so much snow on us overnight lolol

where was the 06 pl positioned? i l know in 2000 i was in minnesota. latest precip radar, that small snow is a bit bigger..but i suppose that s it bed time lol

1996 are you sure?? i remember it being longer ago than that unless i was out the country at the time lol

certainly not in the last 20 years as far as i remember infact longer than that lol

i agree i am just forcing myself to be optimistic though its a gloomy outlook lol

am looking forward to this lp moving into nw scotland..might bring nothing but a dusting, but id take that than possible rain anyday

haha now watch everyone hit the refresh button on that website

i shouldnt need to point out winter in this country certainly for the last 10 years as not ended until the end of march and into april, since this one has been a much colder winter id expect it to last just as long..yes we have a slack high week coming up..which will allow night temps to really drop off and day time temps to also remain low (ie frosts not going anywhere) allowing for any potential snow to have a chance of snowing and sticking..but anything can happen..including that pl..so dont be too downhearted and gloomy...this is the uk..what shouldnt happen does.

polar lows do not drop 2-5cm they have the warning for the lp to the nw lol actually am gonna stop posting them in case the owners go mental..but that is a polar and it is growing very visibly

it will be being watched very close you can bet on it by the meto..since its still building and difficult to forecast in the first place..i think they are holding off to see what happens in the next hour or so

it developed an eye about 3 hours ago, it only just starting to build..we'll have to see sp, if any movement from lp nw will have any influence on pulling it further south..since its still growing meanwhile. not sure if thats a sign of potential dragging by the lp in nw..its built a bit more

hahaha there you go that explains it all really

the only thing to watch out for, is movement in the next couple of hours, and the position of the lp to the nw.

likely not, gonna be a few factors with that pl, for example whether the lp to nw moves in and drags it down..even so id expect it to fall apart quickly under those conditions..either northern scotland or nw scotland...i just cant see it surviving long enough..i am more than disappointed with upper airs temps tonight. -4 for most of the region. dew points have also been disappointing.

it is a polar low, but looking at it, its still forming, what we want is for that low pressure system to the nw of the uk to feed it, and drag it down to us pronto..they simply dont last long, but they can produce quite a lot of snow. expect this to grow very quickly good thing is the lp to nw is very close by to it, and to the uk it has grown again the eye is now more distinctive than last photo