Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

SizzlingHeat

Members
  • Posts

    561
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by SizzlingHeat

  1. Quite frankly this tedious and compulsive chasing for cold and snow has gone on for long enough now. The charts are showing pretty cold and benign conditions for the vast majority next week before the inevitable milder and wetter breakdown commences from the following week. The chances of snow for the majority are looking slim given the current output. The low to the south is now suggested to stay south enough and the northerly not long or potent enough to produce snow to anybody except usual areas during northerlies. This is probably the longest I have spent observing the model output for the best part of 2 years now, and yet again with disappointment which is the reason I took significant time away to begin with. The obsession and compulsion at every model and every update has become compulsive and adversely affecting productivity in life and work, so I'm going to slap myself in my face and get back to living life away from the ever chase of illusive snow and meteociel. What ever will be will be, but I suppose the positives are that it's cold and dry for most which will alleviate flooding concerns for the time being at least. For the lucky few that get some flurries over the next 7 days, well enjoy. The rest of us will enjoy driving our frosty cars on snowless roads to the office until the wet and windy weather returns. I'm off to live a normal life again. Adios
  2. A very cold yet very dry 18z for the vast majority next week with plenty of crisp sunshine and sharp overnight frosts. Pretty snowless and benign but at least dry and seasonal rather than wet and windy I suppose!
  3. Well the icon is out to 2 hours and I have to say that pressure is already looking 0.025mb higher around the south western coast of Iceland. I have to admit I think this will be a fantastic run given pressure in Newquay is already being slightly overdone by approximately 0.0023mb as per the official recording at Newquay airport. Bring on the 18s!!!
  4. But it wasn't always forecast to collapse via a shortwave, not until the GFS didn't back down when everyone dismissed it run after run for being an outlier. When the other models finally backed down and went along with GFS. Just always seems to be getting within striking distance and then something else happens and scuppers the really nice charts that always pop up post day 7 and 8. The ECM and Ukmo only until this morning were still showing what the icon is currently showing for 8 days time commencing at 144 hours, this has now again been pushed back.
  5. I'm sure we have been stuck at day 7/8 for some time now. The original date of 14th or 15th now pushed back to 17th or 18th. Just like chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, by the time you have got in the car the rain has stopped.
  6. Well the icon is currently out to 45 minutes and the high looks to be about 300 yards further north on the London Road so far on this run so looking promising in these early stages.
  7. 18Z is out to 3 hours and the high is 1.5 miles further west compared with the 12Z
  8. I very rarely post on here anymore but I like to read the comments and generally follow what's going on. Since joining in 2004, the comments are still broadly similar to 20 years ago. It has always amused me to an extent why people still dismiss models and runs that do not show what they want to see, then rave highly about a particular model when it shows what they want to see. Was still the same 20 years ago as it is now. Still makes me chuckle. However, things are starting to become a little more complicated after the weekend with runs chopping and changing to such a vast degree. Micro analysing each run of each model each day isn't going to help, but I feel personally having a half hour look through the models today that the most likely scenario is colder further north with the highest chance of snow midlands north, becoming milder and more unsettled thereafter. Anyhow, im off again, enjoy the winter and adiós!
  9. The sun beginning to break through the cloud in Poole. Very little wind, might go and polish off the BBQ to cook some brekkie
  10. Woken up to calm conditions and light rain in Poole, as expected. Another non event here. The track was nailed by the models and channel Islands really getting hammered. Aside from the far south east this really was a non event for the majority. Again, all the hype and media coverage doesn't help particularly when schools are unnecessarily closed and major events being declared when for 80% of those living in warning areas, the wind isnt even strong enough to fly a kite. Embarrassing really
  11. I can definitely see this all over Facebook tomorrow morning for those living in Dorset
  12. I cant be arsed to post as I'm using a mobile but all 18z updates so far suggest very similar. Brief gusts to 70mph along south east coast and far south west. Vast majority of South Central England are within the centre of the low with the damaging winds remaining in the channel and over channel Islands. Icon, GFS and arpege all go with a 952mb crossing south Dorset towards Southampton then up towards east Anglia. Brief spell of 40-50mph on back end as winds turn NW across the south west but nothing exceptional for most.
  13. Latest 18z runs keep this pretty much a channel Islands event. Strong winds east of isle of wight tomorrow gusting 70mph on coasts but pretty normal elsewhere across the south. Bed time for me. All hype as usual!
  14. I think your barometer has malfunctioned. There is no way pressure is that low in your location. I'm in Poole, Dorset and pressure here is 978, which is bang on according to meteociel with Essex being around 985 at the moment.
  15. Not expecting anything here on the Dorset coast, just another wet and autumnal day. The eye passes over Dorset so not expecting winds to be much at all.
  16. ICON continues south another 50 miles from this morning, removes all of southern England and coasts to barely enough of a breeze to fly a kite.
  17. Icon continues to take the low further south, indeed so far south now that the south coast will have light winds as the eye passes over. If the GFS 12z continues this south theme then we can start to draw more confidence and as a result I would imagine the warnings for wind would be removed tomorrow morning
  18. The GFS 6z was probably the furthest south across its ensembles for Dorset. Many others within the suite still showing it further north. Mean winds for Poole were the lowest on the op so perhaps an outlier for how far south it was forecast? There are so many still showing up within the 6z which is devastating for the entire south of England. Its still far from over...
  19. GEM and UKMO have the storm further south as opposed to GFS and icon. Could go down to the wire regarding its track. Wont be resolved until much closer to the time I would imagine
  20. I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low modelled within 60 hours across the south of the UK. That would be horrific and red warnings widely for Thursday morning. Although it could still end up further south. Very fine margins
  21. If that arpege 12z is anywhere close to the mark then that would be seriously concerning for so many people. Gusts along the south coast of 90-100mph and 80mph inland. Very very worrying indeed.
  22. The 6z GFS brings things more in line with what the ECM has been showing, which is much improved from the 0z. I did wonder how many times the op run has been consistently at the bottom of its ensembles before it would revert slightly, which makes large differences to the weather. If GFS was correct then quite a reasonable week ahead although breezy but plenty of sunshine and reasonable temps for April out of the wind and in the sunshine.
  23. Cant wait for a spell of cold rain here in Poole. Absolutely vile, the worst kind of weather. Give me anything except for cold, miserable rain. Would much prefer a sharp northerly in April when the sun is stronger and the showers are often thundery with hail and those towering cumulus the April sunshine can generate. But this cold, grey rain and drizzle can do one!
×
×
  • Create New...