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draztik

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Everything posted by draztik

  1. @Summer Sun it’s up to 19.2C as per latest met office update.
  2. Sigh. no context. Just a photo? Pls elaborate for new and existing members.
  3. For Ireland, in particular, these are the setups they can only dream about. West is best and any breakdown is post 14+ days by the looks of it. Great to see it!
  4. It is the same year in, year out. If this does fail, give it a week or so... and they'll be back for the next great adventure. I ignore the thread for the most part at this time of year.
  5. The positive SST anomaly around the UK and France .... is this a driver to what we're seeing? And Im wondering if this is why we are seeing these strong & never ending positive heights indicated for autumn & winter 22/23.
  6. This is what the seasonal ECM is forecasting for Autumn. Sadly, the horror show has a while to run yet if this is anywhere near to panning out as shown. Also, JMA & Met office also showing similar to this. I suppose this is why they have been suggesting this could linger into next year re drought.
  7. Time and time again, the GFS is routinely binned for showing Synoptics that look ‘suspect’… however, we have all been here before. It’s the golden rule of model viewing.. esp w/ regards to the GFS. Once it picks up a trend, and builds on it with each successive run… you know something is afoot. Hopefully next time when it does this again, it won’t be so unceremoniously binned. However, I won’t hold my breath!
  8. Been here before, haven't we. You really want the GFS on your side in these setups.
  9. October looks like being a snoozy month given the NH profile, and the forecast into day 10 at least. Zero to get excited about! Ahh, the days of the seasons actually being seasonal seem to be over!
  10. The South East fails to notice a positive temp anomaly through the the EC ens mean during its entire run this morning. NI and Scotland fair better, as has been the theme this summer. Days 5-10 2m temp anomaly attached. Days 10-15 similar.
  11. Hover over the persons name, and there is an 'ignore' within that popup.
  12. for context this was yesterday’s EC 12z op within its ensemble pack. And yet people were jumping for joy!
  13. the op was an outlier last night and today’s output from the EC ( incl. the ens) adds further weight to avoid leading the faithful up the garden path!
  14. The GEFs and EC Ens point to average temps for the UK, through days 7-15. The EC op at day 9/10 is quite the outlier. But as always, why let that spoil a story.
  15. The EC ens heights anomaly days 5-10 likely illustrate why there has been one post in 11 hours.
  16. ECM would give the UK a rather warm back end, if it’s day 6-10 output can be believed. Caveats apply - esp as the other models incl UKMO disagree (notably at day 5/6) day 9 /euro.
  17. If a model isn’t showing you what you want to see, it has to be wrong.
  18. What information currently exists to indicate notable warmth for February? Please, I’d love you to share the charts. Or is this merely frustration?!
  19. This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread.
  20. the EC mean for the same timeframe tells the op to stop dancing up the garden path!
  21. These uppers look exceptional. And because it’s late winter and the model is showing mild, expect upgrades
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