MPG

FI is toying with a pressure rise from the south, but it ends up over the UK instead of riding up into the Atlantic. Again the cold goes into eastern Europe.

But probably realistic HNY

December 16!

GFS a step towards mild. No cold uppers enter the UK throughout the run. SW, WET mild influence throughout run. Fergie talks of SSW in Feb..well that may not effect the UK and by then winter is coming to an end.

Give me a proper Atlantic block / greeny high not this rubbish undercut scenario. All I can see is rain or cold rain with LP systems whipping in one after another bringing rain and hill snow in the north. There was so much talk of this high pressure appearing towards scandi and clearly it has increased flooding chances rather than snow.

Gents, can we have a little laymans please, so I could understand what this may mean for the UK. I can see on the output the amount of blocking, but the UK seems to miss the cold air. Maybe another 7 days before the icandy charts start to show? Thanks.

So much northern blocking on the models (especially the 6z). Its funny, all this high pressure and the UK still in a westerly flow, then the high pressure from the south pushing up later in the run. Norway getting a good winter from on it seems.

I have friends who are still NOT back in their homes in Somerset. Somerset 100 times worse than the current situation in the north. At least people in the north had a chance to recover some belongings when the water went down..........the people in Somerset lost everything and couldn't recover a thing. The water never went down for months!!!

What cold spell? Atlantic wet, windy through the models is seems.

Thanks very much. Why are we still chasing the easterly?

Looks different to the 500mb charts...(please correct me etc) http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681775779294896128

Yeah, but the ECMWF Ensemble he posted would probably bring low pressure systems right across the Atlantic to our shores like previous winters in NE USA.

Give me a Greenland high any day over a Scandi block.

Knocker your a gem especially your last paragraph! 228 is FI? How about the colder solutions within the reasonable reliable time frame.

Thanks knocker. Your first post for 4 hours, the same time period as the 12z and the discussion regarding them! Is that chart showing rain for the north?