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MPG

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Everything posted by MPG

  1. MPG
    FI is toying with a pressure rise from the south, but it ends up over the UK instead of riding up into the Atlantic. Again the cold goes into eastern Europe.
  2. MPG
    But probably realistic HNY
  3. MPG
    December 16!
  4. MPG
    GFS a step towards mild. No cold uppers enter the UK throughout the run. SW, WET mild influence throughout run. Fergie talks of SSW in Feb..well that may not effect the UK and by then winter is coming to an end.
  5. MPG
    Give me a proper Atlantic block / greeny high not this rubbish undercut scenario. All I can see is rain or cold rain with LP systems whipping in one after another bringing rain and hill snow in the north. There was so much talk of this high pressure appearing towards scandi and clearly it has increased flooding chances rather than snow.
  6. MPG
    Gents, can we have a little laymans please, so I could understand what this may mean for the UK. I can see on the output the amount of blocking, but the UK seems to miss the cold air. Maybe another 7 days before the icandy charts start to show? Thanks.
  7. MPG
    So much northern blocking on the models (especially the 6z). Its funny, all this high pressure and the UK still in a westerly flow, then the high pressure from the south pushing up later in the run. Norway getting a good winter from on it seems.
  8. MPG
    I have friends who are still NOT back in their homes in Somerset. Somerset 100 times worse than the current situation in the north. At least people in the north had a chance to recover some belongings when the water went down..........the people in Somerset lost everything and couldn't recover a thing. The water never went down for months!!!
  9. MPG
    What cold spell? Atlantic wet, windy through the models is seems.
  10. MPG
    Thanks very much. Why are we still chasing the easterly?
  11. MPG
    Looks different to the 500mb charts...(please correct me etc) http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681775779294896128
  12. MPG
    Yeah, but the ECMWF Ensemble he posted would probably bring low pressure systems right across the Atlantic to our shores like previous winters in NE USA.
  13. MPG
    Give me a Greenland high any day over a Scandi block.
  14. MPG
    Knocker your a gem especially your last paragraph! 228 is FI? How about the colder solutions within the reasonable reliable time frame.
  15. MPG
    Thanks knocker. Your first post for 4 hours, the same time period as the 12z and the discussion regarding them! Is that chart showing rain for the north?
  16. MPG
    And where's knocker? Need those westerly anomolies to keep our feet on the ground!
  17. MPG
    It is misleading and just better to skip past and ignore the clear agenda. People posting the finer details of the output are great to learn from than just a broad brush approach.
  18. MPG
    The -5 line never enters the southern part of the UK through the whole of the 6z output...
  19. MPG
    Never relying on an easterly until t24. A continuation of the GFS Christmas presents was just a tease. Greece looks more likely to get cold rather than the UK from this pattern.
  20. MPG
    "We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex will be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes starting in January. Still, If the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month or so to weaken the polar vortex, then the winter AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents for the remainder of the winter." No confidence from Cohen regarding next year.......IF we do we do, if we don't we don't. The more likely outcome will be the AO will stay around positive.
  21. MPG
    Thanks.
  22. MPG
    Link please.
  23. MPG
    Because this year we have a very strong El Nino driving everything, so there's no chance of another March 2013 in March 2016. And it needs to be 'as cold' otherwise any snow will just disappear in March sunshine.
  24. MPG
    Yes, but 2013 will not be repeated. And in most places that year the temps were cold but no snow.
  25. MPG
    The good thing is only 9 weeks of winter left
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