Ross Andrew Hemphill

Video doesn’t do the wind justice, violent gusts 8591C7C6-67DF-4E9A-9583-29806156EE32.mov

Plenty of structural damage around Inverclyde now, reports coming in of roofs torn off

Glaswegianblizzard oh it’s coming for us believe me, you’ll be thinking very differently come 12pm! Storm is making its move now

Red warning now for C Scotland

Hello everyone! Been a looong time since I’ve posted here, but been lurking every now and again as we do… The potential of storm Éyown has brought me back since I seem to be situated in the prime position for a potential red warning to encompass my location in Inverclyde (W Central Scotland). Looking like a once in a generation storm, but then again Ophelia was said to be just that and here we are again a few years later…

So far so good on the GFS?? High even looks a little stronger

1.1C and 55mm, thank you!

We *could* see a sudden plunge of cold air across Scandi and NW Russia by this time next week if the GFS is anything to go by, so by then we should see a more significant advance of snow West. We’ll see what happens!

I do rate this highly, more than just the typical advance of snow across Russia/Siberia through October. If we take a look at snowfall across Russia and Scandinavia in the Octobers preceding the colder winters we've had since 2009, there is definitely a trend there regarding Scandinavian snow cover and the weather we experience. For this post I will focus on snow cover charts from 10th October each year, posting three charts dated 10th, 20th, and 31st October to see the extent of snow cover in Scandinavia. Although I said I rate this more highly than the typical advance of snow across Siberia, a RAPID advance coinciding with snow cover in Scandinavia does seem to occur in my opinion (although do correct me if you think otherwise!!). This will also be detailed. 1) October 2009 By this date in 2009 we had a decent amount of snow in Scandi, which stayed put ten days later. This was arguably followed by a rapid advance of snow towards W Russia up to the end of the month that year. Tick? 2) October 2010 10th October had zero(!) snow in Scandinavia, but patches began to appear a few days later. There was no rapid advance in 2010, but snow did appear and stick around above 60N as did the snow in Scandi albeit less impressive than 2009. Tick? A less convincing one maybe but still scope for agreement. 3) October 2012 10th October 2012 again had zero snow in Scandi, away from higher parts of Norway that is, but some did appear before the 20th. Then by the end of the month, we had seen possibly one of the fastest advances of snow on record through Russia and almost all of Scandi too. Another less convincing tick for Scandi but a huge tick for rapid advance. These three genuine cold winters did share common factors of rapid advance of snow cover, at least some snow in Scandi, or a slight combination of both. There are exceptions to the rule of course as October 2013 had similar outcomes but we know what happened that winter! This is also far from an exact science as we know, but there is definitely some sort of link with colder winters here to my untrained amateur eye. Things like la nina, QBO, etc have their own effect in varying capacities in different winters, so it's hard to give definitive answers...

Indicates that Ian is still intensifying, he *could* already be a cat 5??

High is centred a good bit closer to the UK by next weekend on the GFS edit: BIG upgrade in the positioning of the high by T177!!

Op is on the cooler side of things in the second half of the run as well

12z gives a much cooler airmass across the UK back end of next week into the following week compared to the 6z

Jet profile on the GFS 12z looks slightly different at T72, going through Scotland rather than around it? edit: although it’s overall weaker to my eye across the Atlantic

It’s looking lively next week that’s for sure!! This thread sums it up nicely. Will have to watch the weather like a hawk this week for any change because, as we know, any subtle changes will have a massive difference on who sees what and how severe it is. Friday’s low is especially interesting, will it correct Nwards depending on how deep it is?