jvenge

Looking at the MSLP anomalies for December suggests a UK/Ireland high with then another high in western Russia. Even with MSLP anomalies there is noise, as you end up with a slight anomaly across Europe as a whole which will then render any temperature anomalies meaningless. The temp anomalies on seasonal models are the most useless. Even then, the chances of the ECM seasonal nailing the MSLP exactly are fairly slim, I'd say, so if that high pressure shifts in any direction you can get a widely different result. Personally I do quite well out of UK highs usually , but I wouldn't be overly confident on it currently. If it's reasonably accurate for the UK it will be dry and frosty.

Because looking at 2m or 850 average temps isn't useful for seasonal models. They are useful for 500mb heights or MSLP. You can then guess what kind of weather can come from that. Also, for ECM, we see it for a monthly average only and you therefore just get to see either the strongest signal for that time period or an averaged into nothingness (which is useful as well). Generally what will happen is (if the forecast is in the ballpark), the warmer areas will be even warmer, the neutral areas will be actually cold and any areas showing cold will be even colder. You get to see this on the weeklies playing out quite often. So ECM showing an anomaly between Greenland/Iceland for November, similar for December and then an anomaly over Scandinavia for January allows people to understand what is possible from that. However if you look at surface temperature prediction it looks rather lacklustre, but anyone knows that if things setup that way this forum will be having a meltdown.

Nope. Nothing a few weeks out anyway. It is of interest as to how it impacts the ENSO state going forwards. Some papers have speculated that volcanic eruptions in that general region can favour El Nino development. So I imagine many scientists are quite excited now that they get to test theories on such a big eruption. Of course it isn't like ENSO forecasts are no long and accurate anyway, so even if it does go to El Nino, how unusual would that be after two La Nina anyway? Heh!

Kinda curious to see what comes next. The pattern the UK has been under has given cold to Moldova, but little in the way of snow. I'm hoping the high doesn't reposition itself into some kind of Europe high.

GEFS mean from the 0z keeps with a familiar theme from the reliable timeframe to the unreliable. The resulting being nothing unseasonably mild, but also nothing of interest to cold weather fans. Relatively dry since the jet stream goes north of the UK, but some light rain at times.

Similar with La Nina and El Nino. We all know what the theoretical likely outcomes are, but things can happen to override it. For the UK it happens to such an extent that someone shouldn't feel confident in El Nino and uneasy at La Nina.

Well the sun's influence on weather isn't psuedo science. Also Eastern Europe doesn't need high latitude blocking for cold weather, where as for the UK its kind of a must, unless a ridge sets up in a perfect place.

Happy Orthodox/Old Christmas to you all. After some warm days here we look to be heading towards more seasonal temperatures with perhaps some light snowfall at the weekend. Perfect weather for a weekend stay at a village in the north of Moldova. Should see -6 overnight.

You aren't supposed to look at it on a per run basis in isolation. Rather you look at the averages it picks out, particularly for height anomalies, over say a 7 day period and then you see how this changes either based on weighing more the more recent runs or weighing more the oldest runs. If you want to take a single run from a single day and then expect it to verify then yes, you are going to be disappointed.

Yeah, well, opinions n all, but it isn't a load of rubbish to those who know what to take from it.

Not sure I get this CFS hate. The CFS is meant to be used for looking at seasonal or sub seasonal trends, not as a weather forecast.

Looks good. Moldova also got lucky this time, with the snowiest it has been the past 3 years. It really was a super fine margin though.

Yep not the best. Luckily they give numbers as well.

GFS 0z Op run has temperatures hitting 15c for some people on Thursday.

What's with the fog hating? I look forward to fog days.

Looks good. I got a dusting this morning and there will be a thaw tomorrow before snow falling from late Saturday for a few days. I'm not brave enough to guess the amounts - models are fickle when it comes to Moldovan precipitation events.

I think we all know that the most important thing about the weather at Christmas is that it is cold enough to chill champagne, wine and beer outside in order to save precious fridge space.

Day 10? Day 16 it is usually..

I know most won't care, but it has really been odd watching the models these days (for a different reason to most). The GFS control and OP for me now find high single digit to low double digit minus temperatures for next week. What is strange is that at the start of the week it was showing double digit positive temperatures. No hints in the ensembles of this prior. And the latest 12z gives snow events from the 26th onwards. I don't recall seeing that kind of turn around before It started from the Tuesday runs and the upgrades keep coming. Let's hope it doesn't turn the other way.

I think what he is probably saying is that he has experienced some nice cold and snow spells so he doesn't particularly care if south westerlies came along for a week longer than they used to and if some days got to 12 degrees rather than 9 degrees in winter. Trying to figure out how climate change comes into play for weather patterns for the British Isles is quite tricky. After all, the warmest Christmas Day on record was 1920 in Devon. Northern Ireland had its coldest Christmas Day as recently as 2010, for example. So how averages and means trend up doesn't really tell the whole story. Cold weather can and still does happen. It will continue to do so.

GEFS Mean is quite representative of pretty much every ensemble member and Op towards New Year. What this means is the jet stream will run through the UK and bring quite wet weather and above average temperatures.

In Darlington you usually have more luck than most people! I was born in Darlington, btw.

Although the chance of wide spread snow has vanished from the GFS for Saturday, it will have at least a seasonal feel to the air for many people.

I think there is a difference between expressing interest in a preferred outcome and ramping. By all means if a model shows snow like the GFS Op did for 3 runs yesterday, say it. I did. But point out the GEFS were never so bullish. EPS and ECM Op not at all. Don't start disparaging models you praised a week ago, etc.

Interestingly overnight the ECM and GFS deliver boxing day snow for me after teasing me with runs showing 9 degrees at times.