danthetan
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Everything posted by danthetan
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sundog Interesting at first glance, but We're the other years el nino? That would account for the Pacific being warmer also in the 80's to late 90s the Atlantic was in the cold phase of the AMO and since then been in the warm phase that could account for current warmth.
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Just remember nothing of note likely to crop up until April then we have 20 weeks until we're decending back into short days and this current dross. We really do forget how far north we are in the UK.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
danthetan replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch correct and will be more than enough, people have seen snow last few days with -4 @ 850hpa hills of pembrokeshire included right on the coast. Its only 5 days away -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
danthetan replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Something I've noticed is the force of the block to the NE seems to be splitting those lows further to the west of the UK with each run meaning we stay more ESE flow as a result. With no cold air on the continent were relying on the block to retrogress to Greenland and enough forcing to keep the lows to the SW to avoid S or SE flow to allow a shot of cold air around the high. -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
danthetan replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Midlands Ice Age Ocean Analysis | Tropical Tidbits WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM Analysis tools for tracking and forecasting tropical weather -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
danthetan replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hi @Midlands Ice Age im wondering if you can answer this. I use tropical tidbits for viewing SST on the world map it shows ice in white but has a dark grey area which doesnt make clear what it means? My theory is, its got a thin layer of ice which doesn't reach the threshold of 15% sea ice. In which case the ice has although thin has come along way out from the fram towards Iceland this year. -
Yes someone posted the Cape values expected down the Irish sea on the other thread and looked good for shower formation. Worth looking at the satellite imagery for shower formation and expected track. The hook in the Irish sea is looking good. Although I've shower evaporate if they are not to intense as it hits the cold air over land. I'm in the carribean atm so I won't be seeing any snow.
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I haven't seen anything of note snow wise from a dangler since 2004 maybe 2010 or 2009 I can't fully remember, rare as hens teeth these days. Used to be more common when I was in school.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
danthetan replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Havnt seen it, but are we talking wedge southerly track lows? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
danthetan replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The difference between UKMO and GFS is at 144hr the azores high is pulled back into the Atlantic. Let's see what EC does. -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
danthetan replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
@Midlands Ice Age do you think the late melting of the ice in august, has aided the quick refreeze were seeing? As the open water was primed for re-freeze as temperatures dropped. Interested to hear your thoughts -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
danthetan replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think you can say the GFS has backtracked it has the High in a different orientation over scandi so less colder comes around the SE flank and 144 hrs it's a variation on the drum it's keeps banging. Fascinating watching none the less. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
danthetan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the best case scenario with looking at the 500mb means is the jet stream is pushed as far south as possible due to the heights in the artic putting pressure on the PV . There is alot of cold air bottled up to the NW if we could tap into that it's the best we can hope for.