shetland islands

This seems to be trending further and further south with every run now. Any further trends south and it could become a non-event for many.

Ha! More like 1 cm!

Yeah, it looks like it's gone from a SE event to a more Midlands event on Tuesday and Thursday on the latest models. In fact, the front on Tuesday basically fizzles out as it heads SE. Interesting changes and see whether they continue tomorrow.

Indeed. Actually not much in the way of snowfall so it does seem to tie in with the metoffice warning of 1-3 cm. I suspect the front will be quite patchy.

I think some in even in the south of that warning area will struggle to see the snow settling with relatively high few points. I would say E Midlands, E. Anglia and Lincolnshire have a good chance of it all being snow.

The runs will change by the morning again. So much uncertainty. I wouldn't be analysing them too much. Some snow about, but we all know that if a low slides it generally goes further south and in most cases misses us completely. I think it will be Sunday until we are sure about early next week.

During mid December, I attended an emergency planning meeting at my work and the contingency planners were pretty confident of a cold January and February. So much so, the local authority ordered 25% more rock salt. However, at the same meeting today, they were much less bullish than before Christmas. The *risk* is there on the longer term models, but they are now less confident of a very cold February and said it may just turn out to be pretty standard winter weather.

It is concerning that there is still is no real signal for anything v cold or sustained cold. The current colder air just isn't that good for the majority of the country or lowland areas. Transient wintery showers isn't really what we are looking for. It seems that the longer range models, so far, have failed big time this winter. Still very much time to change, but I suspect if we go through this week and there is still no great outlook, then a few people will be scratching their heads.

Agreed. Hopefully we will have some change in the charts soon.

The 60 N zonal winds turned westerly again yesterday, so the PV is in recovery mode. Not good. See the Met guys tweet in the tweet thread.

Yes, a cold N to NE flow this week until the pattern sinks later on...next weekend Aka GFS, ICON etc.... it just seems to me that the wording is moving towards that scenario.

It's clear the UKMO are just going with a blend of their own model for now. If the 12z continue to be poor and become more consistent in backing away from the colder air, then I suspect it will change again tomorrow. As the mention of E winds and coastal snow showers has been removed, I suspect they are also backing away from the Easterly.

Yes and their website 5-day forecast doesn't really support widespread snowfall as of yet.

Although the models are often over progressive with the Atlantic, the block isn't that cold. It is forecast to be above freezing in parts of Germany and Poland all next week. Even southern Sweden is forecast to be between 1-4C.

Yes, but it will certainly feel more seasonal. Although not cold enough for widespread lowland snow. wintery showers, yes.