Thunderbolt_

Of course. I'd welcome a repeat of March 2012 with open arms any year as it is my favourite ever March. The point I was trying to make with my post is that it is unfortunately not likely to be repeated for a while, so there is no point really expecting that at the moment.

That's the problem when we get exceptional months, they kind of mess with people's perceptions. Both March 2012 and 2013 were extraordinary for totally different reasons, 2012 for warmth and sunshine and 2013 for cold and snow. 2013 has messed with the perceptions of a lot of cold weather lovers, but at the same time 2012 has skewed mine in a way too. After those two months, I think mildies like myself seem to expect more in the way of April/May type warmth from March after 2012, whereas the coldies expect more in the way of January-type cold after 2013. In reality, a repeat of either of those two months is not likely for quite a while, if I'm honest.

My prediction for spring 2016, as of now is for a slightly warmer and slightly drier than average March, a shocker of an April (ala 2012) and a cool and dry May (ala 2013).

One man's dream will be another man's nightmare. I do like the second half of May though! Mine would be a very warm and dry, and sunny spring starting in February, with some thunderstorms kicking in later on. A spring comprised of something like February 1998 (7.3C), March 2012 (8.3C), April 2011 (11.8C) and May 1992 (13.6C) would suit me fine.

LOL

We've passed the mid-way point of winter and the day length is on the upward trend, and that means that spring is fast approaching. Due to the El Niño, I think that spring 2016 is going to be quite a cold one to be honest, with April probably being the focal month. I think that there could be some very large rainfall totals on that month.

Waiting at the tram stop to go to my uni lecture at the moment. There are some lovely anvils over Merseyside:

The severe winter of the Great War: 1916-17.

Just seeing all of this lightning around is reminding me of the 25 January 2014, the day when a very vigorous winter squall line crossed the country:

It's alright, no one is having a go at you. I'd say storms are much harder to forecast in winter because they tend to be much weaker than storms in the summer, so most of them usually just stay as showers, if anything. That's exactly what we saw yesterday.

That's one of the many reasons why I hate winter! Thunder in my area is pretty much confined to July and August, with maybe the odd smaller storm then popping up in the autumn. Once August is done then I know that I'm pretty much waiting 10 or so months for any meaningful thunder, with the exception of small surprises like 25 October 2013, 9 November 2013 and 5 December 2014. Roll on April, when the convective season really starts to kick off.

6 years ago today, Tomasz Scharernaker released this forecast. I remember watching it that evening and I actually included a small part of it in my winter 2009-10 video:

A brief summary here: December 2015 - the mildest winter month ever recorded, by quite a large margin. Also fairly cloudy and wet. Days with: Rain (>1mm): 20 Strong winds (>40 mph gusts): 6 No sun: 7 Thunder: 0 Hail: 1 Fog: 0 Frost: 0 Snow falling: 0 Snow accumulating: 0 Temperatures: Highest maxima: 16°C (19th) - record high for December Lowest maxima: 8°C (13th) Highest minima: 13°C (19th) - record high for December Lowest minima: 1°C (13th) Mean maxima: 12.00°C Mean minima: 6.32°C Overall mean: 9.16°C - 4.24°C above the 1981-2010 average. - record mildest December Rainfall: Wettest day: 27.2mm (Boxing Day) Overall rainfall: 129.5mm Air pressure at 18:00: Highest air pressure: 1024mb (9th) Lowest air pressure: 1000mb (21st) Mean air pressure: 1011.3mb Graphs:

The sun sets for the final time in 2015:

It looks to me a bit like there is a secondary squall line developing just behind the main one? If that intensifies, then it could also bring a bit of thunder and lightning for some.