neige57
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Everything posted by neige57
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Increased WAVE2 this morning and WAVE1 still holds up, it has not changed compared to yesterday concerning What is interesting is that we are not far from a reversal of zonal winds and it will be monitored. In any case, the strong QBO- is doing his work- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
you speak of détermiste GFS? because the GFS // this is another story and very different. Do not look at the GFS détermiste soon to be replaced- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
ECMWF confirms the great potential this evening with a huge pressure on the Polar Vortex Even better on the JMA 120h deadline- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
With a strong QBO- on several levels, it could all go very fast, can be faster than that suggested the current stratospheric models. I just signal that will reach the peak QBO- in the heart of winter combined with a weak El Nino. The QBO- will be around -25 during December and January, with a peak at the end of the year. A figure as low in the heart of winter was no longer produced since December 2005 closely followed by December 1965 and that's all- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=9061.0- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
study or not study, it does not work every time. There has been intense warming in the stratosphere for many winters at high solar flux. The solar flux alone can not have a direct impact on the stratosphere, it's just not possible. We must look at all the solar parameters (solar flux index KP, AP, SSN etc) so there is a real impact. There is also the El Nino phenomenon that comes into play. Winters El Nino / QBO- were very often sudden stratospheric warmings despite a very high solar activity- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
In this case, you explain to me why the winters were cold during the winter of 1968/1969 (flux averaged 160) or the winters of 1957/1958 (QBO +) or 1958/1959 (QBO-) with a solar flux around 190 on average. I think most people within this forum have nothing including the role of solar activity. No it is not the solar flux to look out but KP index (currently down as often in this solar cycle 24) because this index is directly related to solar flares. Then the AP index, the most important Solar flux 167 is currently linked to the only task that remains on the sun, the largest disk and facedown including. In fact, the sun is quiet- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think it would be reliable even if we must always be careful. But the parameters as the strong negative QBO, El Nino and low current low solar activity (solar flux below 120) are in favor of a regular hot stratosphere- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
wow, ECMWF pulls no punches this morning with a weak polar vortex completely Further increase in wave 1 am in the medium term, a good sign- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
In any case, the polar vortex is seen to be disturbed medium term, continuing October What huge difference compared to the same period in 2013- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It is even a sudden change in the latter GFS definitely a connection with the fall of solar activity since 2192 sunspot is gone. We know that a quiet sun influences the effects of QBO- the stratosphere during a weak El Nino. There is strong reason to be optimistic this winter even if the snow fell over western Russia which is far from catastrophic the contrary http://www.solarham.net/xray.htm- 1,521 replies
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Congratulations and I am very widely. As some would say, be patient
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I completely agree with you. In my opinion, the IZE could be lost if a SSW would be realized for example early in the season for example late December or mid-January. That is why I have big doubts about this index and very little back up because only until 2011 (while the OPI index goes back to 1976). Personally, I would rather use the IPO index and ISC without hesitation
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
still no weakness of the wave 1 long term. It lasts for a month now, a very positive sign- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
neige57 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I see a lot of people have not really understood the role of solar activity. There may well have peaked at 200, there will be no impact on the earth as these peaks are too short in time and in addition to all that, the CME thrown into space were rare even now . You will see that once this big stain is gone, the flow will drop again in the 120 flux is close to 200 mainly caused by the large spot. Elsewhere it's still flat and we can see the disappearance of spots on the northern hemisphere. All this to say that even the flow to 200, there will be no impact on the land because it does not last long enough For there is an impact on the earth, it would have the solar flux is greater than 150 for at least one month minimum which was never the case in this cycle 24 except during the fall of 2011 and early this year but nothing since . And also that the CME are many and thrown to earth (and not on the other side)- 1,521 replies
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