stormkite

hongkong forecast is for a super typoon 10W MATMO 140720 0600 13.6N 129.3E WPAC 65 974

10W MATMO 140720 0600 13.6N 129.3E WPAC 65 974 65 knots atm JTWC tracks a direct hit on Taiwan. http://www.bellmereweather.net/MTSatPics/EquatorSlideShow.asp WDPN31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 12// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200555Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE SYSTEM'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING IT AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES TAIWAN. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN, INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN Think i posted this in the wrong thread only a new menber here sorry for the f/u

Appears to be suffering from dry air and shear to its north atm. 09W RAMMASUN 140717 0600 16.8N 115.0E WPAC 80 963