MidnightSnow

This has piqued my interest I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.

At the very least it's been fun on here in the past couple of weeks (for me anyway) - Just the thought of potential heavy snow makes this depressing month a bit more exciting, even if it's all a fugazi Kinda like being in the casino and being up for a few hours but ultimately coming away empty-handed. Doesn't mean those few hours of delusion weren't fun

Nah I'm chasing that bad boy until the very end. Not interested in swirly bands or snow showers, they never come to anything for some of us.

I've wondered this for a long time and would also like to know the reason. At one point, some of the models had this low pressure system hitting Northern England. In future we need to hope one of these low pressure systems from the SW is forecast to hit the Highlands. Then maybe it will hit the south coast of England.

With the colder temps filtering further south on this run... I'm wondering if this will have any impact on the midweek low? i.e. Does it increase the likelihood of the low heading into France, or does it make no difference?

I still think there's enough time for the low to adjust north. If it's showing the same thing on Sunday, then yeah... the writing's probably on the wall. The people who talk about shower feature's popping up of nowhere are usually in favourable locations. Some of us only do well from frontal snow so I fully understand your disappointment. With a half glass full perspective, locking in deep cold isn't a bad second option. Hopefully we get one or two more channel low's further down the line. One of these days it's gonna hit just right.

If the ECM / UKMO / Met Office were all looking poor, but the GFS was showing nirvana, many on here would happily dismiss the GFS. So why wont you do the same when it's the other way around?

GFS12z is an absolute snorker

First time I've seen the ppn reach as far as the West Country / South Wales. Fully expecting the showers to fizzle out before then but maybe not

I really, really like this update. Quite often they sit on the fence and cover all bases. This seems more assured than usual. Lets hope the same kind of language is used in the medium range update in a week or two

I know it's been said many times before, but given the fact that lows historically end up further south... why not just assume the same thing will happen again? Would it not be a safe bet to assume the low on Sunday/Monday will be 50-100 miles further south than what the models are currently showing?

Not long now

Going by some of the graphics on this page, it looks like the Wednesday low stalls during the afternoon / evening. Is the M4 corridor the sweet spot for a change? Am I seeing that correctly?

Would snow cover tomorrow, help with snow chances for the rest of the week? With it being fairly marginal, could the cold ground make the difference?