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Dr. Astro

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Everything posted by Dr. Astro

  1. Snowing in Manchester, just started. Bodes well for the rest of the night
  2. Nothing worse than that Liam... Looking at the radar it does seem a few more heavier bursts are coming through rather than the light precipitation.
  3. Looking at the latest models, I would say places from Warrington to Manchester could do surprisingly well out of this sliding system. It's still early so don't be disheartened at the moment, were only at 1PM. Temperatures will begin to fall again soon enough, although a little rise is expected around this time. It's going to be more of a now cast, rather than a forecast, as some places 5 miles down the road will be getting snow, and the other side will be rain/sleet until later on in the night. I would expect the Peaks to do well, aroundMacclesfield Forest / Teggs Nose way.
  4. Latest... HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Alex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on satellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye embedded within cold cloud tops. Recent images do suggest some warming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant. Dvorak T-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75 kt. Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should continue to cool along the path of Alex. This, along with a little increase in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual weakening. However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength while passing near or over the Azores. In 24 hours or so, the global models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion of the circulation. This suggests extratropical transition, and the official forecast reflects this. Later in the forecast period, the global models show the system merging with another extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic. The initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19. There is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning. Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave mid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader trough to its northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is near the consensus of these models. This is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction. Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
  5. None of what you posted was "Mild Dross", it's all cold. Plenty of potential with that cut off GH.
  6. Have to laugh at some of the comments regarding the GFS not being a good run. Its classic, maybe it's the people who live south of the Midlands? Battleground Galore. Atlantic failure. UKMO = Stellar. You spoilt lot!
  7. Well, there we have it all. Ignore the models... We just require a trained eye as ours seem to be lacking in that department !
  8. Chris K, thanks for the answer above, this link will also help your studies http://scienceline.ucsb.edu/getkey.php?key=1962 Chiono, good image. Looks like Europe is going to get a cool down, not sure why some are down beat if it's cold you are after, as it isn't very far away.
  9. You can read more here: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction/quantifying-forecast-uncertainty
  10. GEM, is a Gem tonight for festive weather lovers.... I think it's worth keeping an eye on the Siberian High...
  11. Snowing quite heavy now. Starting to stick. 2010 ? Haha, we wish !
  12. Ah ! Thats good to know, it's all working perfect again anyways, cheers Paul :-)
  13. HI Paul, All seems smooth again now. Aliens, Gremlins or TWO Hackers?
  14. Facebook banned at work - what are Gremlins ? Besides the obvious alien things... Or are you saying NW has been taken over by Aliens?
  15. Yep, there has been some great posts by the more knowledgable, Steve, Chiono, Ian, John etc, but one thing is for sure, the Met and Ian are nearly always spot on in what they forecast. I think this is because they HAVE to keep a level head, and not get sucked into things because thats what you are looking for... Those who look for snow, will see snow, whatever the charts are showing.
  16. Have to agree with this. I'd say 95% of members on this forum want Snow, and just cold with a bit of frost isn't wetting the appetite of many. Just had a good look at the profile this morning, and it's bleak, to say the least. HP dominating for the next 15 days or more, cold, dry & benign. Anything can happen after that, but all I see is a flat pattern with not much interest.
  17. Hi MIA, You are not far wrong. I think people are just looking for something more widespread, but for the Southern contingent of the UK, the following charts highlight a pretty good snow risk tomorrow, not 10 days into the future, but tomorrow. I'm surprised this place isn't more busy. Strictly for the South then... We have the 528DAM line: 850's are good, some places tipping the famous -10C mark: The flow is good from the ENE: The min temps are good: The precip seems to be light to moderate, but appears to be in streamer form across the South for several hours: The precip type appears to be snow: The "experimental" snow depths highlights the risk: The Isotherm will be no problem: And the UK Snow risk clearly highlights the opportunity: All in a T24-36 hour window. Albeit the FAX has it a little more marginal: ECM singing from the same hymn sheet: As is the GEM: I'd day some in the South are going to see some snow tomorrow. After that, it looks very dry and benign until around the 13th February. Enjoy your snow, whoever gets it tomorrow.
  18. Hi Tim, Welcome to the forum... http://www.sat24.com/ is quite good, it goes about an hour forward, but you would be able to see any incoming cloud. There is actually a detailed discussion here: http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~jander/tot2015/tot15intro.htm In regards to the TSE. I was thinking of going myself but March is notorious for cloud cover. It will be luck of the draw i'm afraid.
  19. Slips east side of the Pennines.. Will be dry for us.
  20. Your right. I was trying to balance out the original post, finger jerk reactions ! It's the MOD thread, making me insane.
  21. Can't argue with that, just took a look at the majority of the Ensembles to compare nationwide, and it's dry dry dry until 11-13th feb. Looks like this HP is going to be a tough one to shift.
  22. Fixed your post. It's cold already, but agreed re snow prospects.
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