Danielvn

Fascinating bit of work you’ve done!

That’s exactly how people feel reading the ramping and pseudo science posted on here sometimes. When it’s showing what people want in FI model X is great at sniffing out these situations, when it all changes then people talking about how it’s still all to play for and anything could change. We all know that when the models move away from a cold solution it’s far far more likely to verify than the eye candy charts that get posted on here all the time.

<something about the ECM not handling these situations well with no evidence whatsoever attached>

Probably more runs required I stupidly come back every winter hoping to see something different, but every winter I read the same posts which hype up something off in FI, disregard models that don’t show cold and use their crayons on model charts to show what they want the weather to do.

I don’t get it either, sometimes it feels like people get a buzz out of seeing cold charts regardless of whether they actually verify or not. i couldn’t care less what some chart shows in 7-10 days, I want to see white stuff outside!

They are great aren't they. I think that comes from choosing to look at a reliable timeframe and giving a forecast regardless of the weather that is being forecast as opposed to only posting when the outputs match what he wants. This thread is much better for having Knocker in it

Have you heard of the "Gambler's Fallacy"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy It explains perfectly why because there's 100 times where there's a 20% chance of cold weather why there could be 0 cold spells or 100 cold spells.

Can we stop using phrases like “I think we deserve it”? The weather doesn’t respond to what people deserve or not. I mean how does one come to deserve cold weather? Also, what kind of person goes around telling their family about what the weather’s going to be like based on background signals?!?!?!? i sometimes tell my wife about possible snow events up to a week out and I end up with egg on my face more often than not.

Errr that has been snow this year in Western areas and further south than in a lot of previous winters. It's hardly a 0. I think people need to stop being so IMBY.

Being that I’m originally from Australia, I can pretty much tell you without having to look, that there’s a trough sitting somewhere off the coast of Western Australia.

I don’t think anyone is worried about upsetting anyone. If you so much as go into the model thread and suggest caution then you get accused of actually going out into the Atlantic and pumping up low pressure systems to scupper their cold weather. WHAT PEOPLE POST ON A FORUM DOES NOT AFFECT THE WEATHER IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM and I wish some people would get over themselves.

No one is happy about the downgrades, the reason why they are coming out of the woodwork is to YET AGAIN point out the folly of putting so much faith in stuff that’s in FI. I think some of the people held in such high regard need to have a good look at themselves. They won’t, but they should.

It makes me giggle when people hold up the model thread as some bastion of weather prediction skill. People in there seem to only be able to predict one type of weather and seem to get it wrong 99 times out of 100. But yeah, be scared! Model boyz gonna getcha! *waves GFS in a menacing manner*

Do they have feelings? So many people seem to have feelings that go outside of what the models say. I've got a feeling that at the end of January people are going to have a feeling about the middle of Feb, at which point they'll have a feeling about late Feb and you can guess what they'll have a feeling about in Late Feb!

Remember that anomalies don’t equal pressure.

My feelings are unhurt, don’t worry! Lol. had to get the gloves out today, hoping it gets cold enough soon that I need to get the balaclava out!

The silly thing is that he wouldn’t get that sort of reply if he said he “had a feeling” that there was cold weather on the way. The thing is as we’ve seen countless times before, background signals don’t guarantee anything for us on this little island which is usually in the firing line of the incessant Atlantic wind and rain. They increase our chances, but they don’t guarantee anything. How many times has the NAO looked favourable and we end up with high pressure just that bit too far west?

Apologies if it comes across like that. But it's no different than the people who delight in posting charts which show Nirvana and delight in getting loads of likes for their post and then disappear when it doesn't happen or there are no good charts to post. I don't mean to come across as one of those people who has a forecasting stone (you know the meme!), I'm a coldie at heart who rather optimistically bought a snow shovel this year and I've been around long enough to know that looking for potential too far in the distance is just going to end up in frustration for a lot of people. Anyway there still seems to be a bit of snow next week, just not quite what we were all hoping for. Oh well.

It's like this every year. People keep looking into FI for cold weather, someone "knowledgeable" talks about a sausage or something and then people get excited up until the point that it doesn't actually happen. But people never learn and let this happen again and again and again but yet somehow people seem to keep their mythical status as almighty predictors of weather. It's great to talk about stuff in FI, but at least watch it get close enough to get reliable before getting too excited. That said you've not done yourself a favour making predictions out in FI... Anyway, back to waiting for some nicer charts to turn up in a more reliable timeframe...

You make a good point, but it's also not about ignoring reality, if you want that then go on the Exactaweather facebook group!

No, it makes it massively sensible.

Someone can probably just delete my reply, sorry!

So we might get up to 25-27 degrees IF we're lucky. Why do people seem to think that the max temp is the forecast temp for that period?

And for balance, the min chart for the same time. Also, it’s predicting 30 for London on your chart, hardly widespread.

If they’re non-commital, might that not be an indication that things are perhaps a touch up in the air?