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polar vortex

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  1. I think -QBO works well with low solar and moderate Nino however if the QBO like this winter is to negative this can have a detrimental effect towards northern blocking. Just my opinion of course. One other point that may or may not be of relevance regarding the winter of 62/63 during the October of 1961 the largest detonated nuclear bomb (the Tzar bomba or king of bombs) was dropped over Novaya Zemlya with a yeild measurement of 50 megatons. This would have surely had a impact on the stratosphere remembering of course that the March of 62 was very cold with extensive northern blocking. Maybe this had repercussions for the following winter as well.
  2. Phase 1 is not a high amplified phased state rather the reverse. I see though you have succumbed to the idea of a more amplified state going forward rather than the rinse and repeat that you were forecasting. To much faith in one teleconnect can lead to failure.
  3. I think there is enough evidence in the model output post t120 to suggest a more amplified pattern in the Atlantic. Could be quite a potent affair should this happen. Role on the 12z
  4. The UKMO model this morning suggests that it may not flatten out.The t144 chart screams north Atlantic ridging and a much more meridonal pattern. Something to watch perhaps.
  5. The UKMO t144 chart is loaded with potential this morning. Certainly the pick of the bunch from a coldies perspective but with it being the t144 chart maybe should not put to much faith in it just yet.
  6. Ridge building on the pacific side is more in line with tropical convection around the date line and the weakish phase 8 MJO. Agree with Cohen's lastest thoughts of a trop split of vortex to what was seen in the strat early January. Also I do not buy into what NOAA and the met and its forecasting tools say as gospel. Cold before February is out and then on into March is my bet. The strat has been a thorn in the backside.
  7. Still confident of a pattern change last third of the month with much more in the way of northern blocking as we go into March. This due to tropical convection and MJO signal although the models are struggling with this. The strat has ruled the roost this winter with very little in the way of northern blocking ( possibly due to very strong - QBO ) but hopefully we will see a change over the coming days and weeks.
  8. The strong convection near the date line is obviously being modelled to interact with the polar westerlies (PFJ) in the mid to long range to produce significant ridging up over Alaska and into the Arctic which will amplify (hopefully ) the ridge in the Atlantic. I remember American meteorologist L. Cosgrove who often spoke of this when he forecast a plus PNA and meridonal pattern setting up over the states and the UK. The GFS 18z run is again locking onto this synoptic outcome.
  9. Strong influences from the MJO showing up in the models now with more amplified patterns in the mid range and beyond. I have been banging this drum for a few days now of perhaps a MJO related pattern change last third of February. Clueless as to whether it would be from the east or north or indeed something in between but IF it does transpire then the chances are it could be a very potent affair. There is an abundance of deep cold in the Arctic and should a dropping AO send some of that our way then we could easily still be looking at possible ice days, severe frosts and powder snow.The ECM tonight had it gone on another 48 hours would have covered the country in -10 to -12c uppers at least. Fun times ahead perhaps.
  10. Personally I do not think the model is worthy of band width it takes up, but it shows the effects that MJO forcing could have on the pattern that has been dominated most of the winter by the strat. I am still for thinking pattern change last week of Feb but I would not take any notice of GEM, JMA etc even if they show day after tomorrow scenarios.
  11. I am still hopeful that with continued MJO forcing and ridging on the pacific side we will see a fairly dramatic switch in the mid to longer range output over the coming days. The strat forecasts are showing a split of sorts from 10mb on down around t240 mark. If the MJO forcing is stronger than modeled then the likely hood of a full blown split and HLB's is greatly increased. There is strong tropical convection about 170 degrees west, ideally we would like to see this move further east into a more favorably phase 8 position ( if anything it has moved a little west the last couple of days though it has kept its intensity). This is the key I feel to the AO turning negative and producing the pattern change that most on here are looking for.
  12. ECM 12z t240 is a horrid chart for coldies but I am more interested in the greater amplitude shown over Alaska and north west Canada, again a signal of a stronger MJO wave. Should this continue to increase then we will hopefully see a more amplified pattern take hold over the Arctic (-AO). The models are showing no real signs of this at the moment though it has to be said.
  13. Another poor run from the gfs 12z for those of us wanting a real taste of winter. The strong ridging shown on the run up the western side of America into Alaska made no real impact into the Arctic and thus no real impact in our weather not if your looking for a more blocked and amplified pattern. The reason for this I believe has nothing to do with the GWO and GLAMM tendency or Enso etc but has everything to do with the stratosphere in not allowing heights to build into the Arctic. The 12z does suggest a bigger forcing from the MJO what with the much stronger ridging and although this op run has not shown much of an interest in northern blocking that is not to say that this run is correct or that this will not change.
  14. With the much stronger ridging up into Alaska on 12z run we hopefully will see a much better outcome in FI. This could turn into a very good run for us.
  15. Positive signs on the gfs 12z with stronger ridging over on the Pacific side of north America. This could be very beneficial down the line.
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