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Everything posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Devoid of a prolonged fine spell? We've just had a week long hot spell that you'd expect in July. What do people expect in September? Nothing poor on the horizon either it's all looking like a standard default weather pattern for a typical UK Autumn. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With the current boiling hot SST's i wont expect much this winter -
The Heat Haters Club 2023
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to cheeky_monkey's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Gotta admit this hot spell isn't much fun as its got just too humid and nights here have become uncomfortable even for my liking. I think it's just a toned down version of the hot spell of August 2003 which went on for several days with oppressive high humidity levels. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs just goes on and on. Still 31c in the SE by next Wednesday. This would have be the longest spell of 30c days in September. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at some of the overnight lows this week it looks like lows might not drop below 20C. Have Tropical nights ever happened in September before? -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When isn't September better than August. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An Indian Summer always when its after the first frost even if it happens in September -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice looking 18z rolling out Could this be a week long warm and dry spell similar to that of June? -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aug 10th 2003 disagrees with you. . which is a date way past solstice and into late summer and was all 20 years ago today - so if 38.5c can be made 20 years ago I'd say 40c is pretty achievable in August today, and all in a warming UK climate. -
Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What bugs me about BBC weather is how they use Liverpool to represent the temperature across the North West. Liverpool is always going to be the coolest place during heatwaves. A person living in Stoke or Manchester will assume their temperature is going to be 26 but its actually 26 for Liverpool yet in Manchester or Stoke it could be 30 or 31. The BBC did it last July and announced it was going to be 32 in Liverpool when it was 37 in Manchester. The population of Manchester and surrounding towns and cities sure exceeds the population of Liverpool yet we have to go by Liverpools temperature to represent the whole north west. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A chart showing that in fantasy means a mild wet and mild winter in reality. I wouldn't even waste a single tiddle tiny bit of my energy getting excited about it. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking likely now that the UK will be be under much warmer airmass from next weekend. Pretty much a shock to the system after Julys misery. How hot it gets and how long it lasts is all down to the low to the west of Biscay and if it can behave well enough to deliver a full blown heatwave. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In this warming and changing climate I think the early part of October could hit 30c if all the right conditions and right set up falls into place. October 1st 2010 reached 29c. Mid September 2016 is another example hitting 34c. -
Summer 2023 chat
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
There seems to be a lack of moths this year. Not seen any at night as normally come in through the window attracted to the light. Wonder if they've all died due to the cooler weather? -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When a chart like that is showing within the T72 timeframe I'll believe it. After this summers massive model fail I don't know why people are drooling over charts that are six months away. The long range models can't even get it right one month away. Even if that chart verifys we'll probably end up with cold rain and very limited snowfall as usual -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest ensembles from the GFS are very dissapointing, Hardly anything going above the average until at least mid August. After that its the great old land of the it'll never happen. This summer is worse than 2012 at least 2012 had some decent hot days at end of June and July. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Took a couple of days away from model watching but had a sneak peek at them today to see if the trend for a pattern change in August had developed further but seems any pattern change has sunken away quicker than the titanic!! A continuation of July and a low pressure traffic jam waiting to get here is the best GFS can offer..... 2012tastic.. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There have been a few ensemble members showing us tapping into the heat from the South as we start off Aug. Last nights 12z showed furnace conditions and these hot ensemble members are not being pushed back they are being pushed forward by a day or so.. but theres definatley a warmer pattern coming and I wouldn't rule out the euro heatwave extension just yet. . -
A maritime westerly summer isn't so bad after the recent heat spikes of 35 plus each year since 2018. I find it very refreshing and cool as last year did too much to bear and was very oppressive in August ..... but lets use this summer as a stern reminder that this is our climate by default when expecting 10 day heatwaves and heat spikes to verify.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Fourty Point Three Degrees replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What a terrible shocking "summer is over" run from GFS. You can now just about say that GFS has counted down the unsetteled right from T384 to T0 when it first picked it up late June..