Lakigigar

And this seems like the peak, feels like it is even more intense than half an hour ago. The ICON/ARPEGE/WRF models all suggest peak between now and 2PM (brussels time)

The wind gust seem to be picking up even further in west flanders, but we should be within/close to the peak

How did the human race survive up to now without basic healthcare?

This is a dangerous, severe and powerful storm, the fact that most of England isn't affected by it (or less so) doesn't change that fact, just look at Brittany. And the warnings for Cornwall and Southeast England are more than justified.

Already quite windy in Belgium too, though the worst for here is expected tomorrow late morning/early afternoon. I have a feeling though that this is going to be stronger than anticipated (given it's already quite windy and uncomfortably so, while we're still hours and hours away from the peak), and given the measured gusts in brittany that doesn't look good.

Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Jersey 953.8 hPa (Jersey) Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Guernsey 952.5 hPa. (Guernsey) Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Cap de La Hague, Cherbourg 951.8 hPa. (France) Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Blankenberge 954 hPa (Belgium) Lowest air pressure: 25 December 1821 Boulogne sur mer 947.1 hPa. (France, not official) I got those records for the channel islands, France and Belgium. Most are indeed of that day. The UKMO chart is definitely around those levels for the second one (saturday storm)

These are the records for all of the UK, but this is more to the south than those. For all-time records: Lowest: 22 November 1865, Dolgellau, North Wales 944.8 hPa. Lowest: 8 December 1886, Stonyhurst in Lancashire, where the barometer fell to 940.4 hPa. It's also possible that the 19th century records aren't in the database. Great Storm of 1987 got down to 953 hPa in the North Sea. And the 2000 storm named cyclone Oratia reached 941 hPa according to peer review data but that one was more to the northeast with the record set on sea (and not officially recorded, but reconstructed).

hopefully this will be a very long solar minimum.

I also believe we will have three much colder than normal winters in a row now.

In Belgium average year december 1,0C: 18,93% top 20 spotless years, december 1,0C: 40% average year january 0,5C: 21,30% top 20 spotless years, january 0,5C: 55% average year february 1,0C: 21,89% top 20 spotless years, february 1,0C: 30% But... We must not forget that overall solar activity was lower during the 2nd half of the 19th century than during most of the 20th century, and that the Earth did warm substantially, so that the percentages of both an average year and of a top 20 spotless year might be much, much lower, and that the difference between a top 20 spotless year chance of low CET and an average year chance of low CET might be smaller than some might guess. The effect of contemporary climate change is much higher than the effect of a top 20 spotless year on our climate, and more parameters come into place when you want to have an ideal winter setting... An QBOe seem to greatly improve winter chances, when combined with low solar activity.

what is normal chance of getting a december of 3.6C or colder in UK?

What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???

Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.

why is it so important to have spotless days?

January : January 2010 February : February 2012 March : March 2013 April : April 2013 May : May 2018 June : June 2017 July : July 2018 August : August 2015? September : No idea, september 2010 probably October : October 2017? November : November 2010 December : December 2010 Hard for the autumn months... for some reason. None actually really excite me unless you want endless indian summer. Can't remember a decent storm in the autumn anymore. Favourite weather year: 2010 or 2018 Least favourite weather year: 2015

Is solar cycle 25 going to be a very weak one?

Probably continuation of the drought, like it happened in 1959 or 1540. Weak el nino, low hurricane activity, low sun activity are also well factors for a cold winter. If same air pressure patterns hold until than, we might have a cold or even legendary winter (and we're due for that). I think the drought will continue to last, and might evolve into a multi-year event, with of course sometimes brief periods of relief / precipation, but in general drought. Our region (west of Belgium) had last year also a severe drought in the spring, and we're already in a more continental climate than average since february. No reason to believe this might change anytime soon. Dry years, (relatively) cold winters and warm summer often happen in series, and they will be the standard for the upcoming years. Not to mention that the autumns became much drier since the effects of climate change started to kick in (stronger Azores High and the ever-persistent EU ridging/high causing often Indian Summers here). The time that the autumns were wet and windy are over... It looks like end-november till begin-january is the new autumn. I have a feeling this drought might last until 2023 or 2024 and that we might experience Cape Town-esque water shortages in parts of Europe (not necessarily UK). I also believe we might experience a series of very good winters, but they might also be on the drier side and be poor in snowfall in general (aside of local / regional large amount of snowfall, or that one year where we might have a cold winter but with normal precipation) in the series of 4-5 cold winters. Solar cycle 25 also seems to be a very weak one, so that might change things as well. The colder Atlantic Ocean water surely does seem to have an effect as well.

Drought in Belgium as well... Haven't had rain since june.

March 1971 or March 1955

Oh come on, when i checked before for nov/dec/jan they also went for way warmer than normal, and it looks like november will turn out to be colder, so dec and jan will have some cathing up work to do. It's just bullsuper duper, all those models. There is almost no place on the entire plant where there is a decent chance of cold winter. That's just not true. I'm checking those models for years, and CFS never went for a cold winter in almost ten years, and in warmer years they turn out to be right, and in colder years they turn out to be horribly wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/SupportRooseveltSkerrit/

Hours before Maria made landfall.

The roof of the prime minister's house is gone. There is flooding inside his house.