bumpydogz

A few meaty gusts starting here in Dorking. I'm praying that my neighbours overgrown tree comes down on his side of the fence rather than ours...

Apologies. I will in future indeed stick to what this place is about. 98.45567% sure the latest GFS run is correct. BOOM!

I think it's more a case that the low stalls in situ. Hopefully this isn't reflected in the ensembles.

The Met appear to have taken onboard recent model developments... See appropriate thread.

Some of you may want to check out the recently updated Met-office long range forecast ?️ At the start of this period it will be settled and predominantly dry with large amounts of cloud, though cloud may well be thick enough for the odd spot of drizzle at times. In general, cloud amounts will tend to reduce with time, with a corresponding increase in the risk of overnight fog and frost, which may be slow to clear by day in some areas. Towards the middle of the period, there is an increasing chance of more unsettled and windier weather affecting the UK, with rain, and perhaps snow, possible for some places. Temperatures will generally be near to below normal, perhaps rather cold in the south, feeling chilly where any fog persists, and locally mild in the north and northwest.

This is completely unscientific and merely hopecasting. The models show a UK high in the medium term. There is absolutely no evidence from the models to support an easterly in the foreseeable.

Exactly. In your head, just replace any commentator's "I expect this to happen" with "I hope this will happen" and you'll be fine.

Fair enough, and apologies if I have offended anyone with my comments. As you say, let's give the models and the experts some time to find a consensus. All the best.

With the greatest respect its also not about blind hope-casting. Maybe the Met with their supercomputers have got this wrong, but I would back them every time against a bunch of amateurs on a weather forum. I'm not having a go here, but the constant emotional rollercoaster on here can get quite tiresome at times.

I realise that. As things stand however there is not a single model I've seen this evening that has the cold air in Europe prevailing over the westerly pressure from the atlantic. This may change of course, but for me the most likely scenarios is either for the high pressure to buckle, or for the UK to be in a col with the low stalling to the W/SW of the BIs.

Not sure it's much of a battle TBH if the ECM has this right...

Just started here in Dorking. Still light but actual snow!

Strangely missing the Knocker Only thread...

Monsoon conditions in Dorking with fairly frequent thunder. Last one sounded really close.

It's a myth.