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Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
Frank_Wx replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks like a 10hPa Strat PV split on today's 12z GFS by Day 10 -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
Frank_Wx replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What are the general signals to a precursor pattern? What should I be looking for? -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
Frank_Wx replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The Day 10 forecasts are beginning to signal a moderate wave 2 warming event will occur in the upper and mid levels of the Stratosphere. Whether or not this leads to the collapse of the Strat PV remains to be seen. Let's first get this look within Day 5. Here is the ECM OP 10hPa at Day 10. Vortex is looking pretty elongated there. -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
Frank_Wx replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Zonal winds in the upper Strat are weakening. QBO values have been trending toward neutral (at 30mb at least). Wave 2 event on the EURO is pretty impressive We've seen models split the PV in the lower and mid levels...but this is the first time I'm seeing it at 10Hpa. Granted it's quite a long way out.- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
At the very least seem to be making progress...- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks like Dateline / MJO tropical forcing will feedback into western NA mid level ridging come January- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If Tropospheric ridges drive splits in the lower Strat, what is there to drive splits further upstream?- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So....- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I noticed increased geopotential heights around Scandinavia beginning next week and beyond. Does this enhance energy transfer from the Troposphere to Stratosphere at all?- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It seems GFS OP is really trying to weaken / displace the PV by 300+ hours. Here was the 18z run at 10hPa.- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Here's another perspective from 12z GFS OP 10hPa- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What type of impact does tropospheric ridging bring to the Stratosphere?- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Too bad this is day 15, but cool to see.- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Frank_Wx replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Has anyone heard / seen this plot from Meteorologist Ryan Ashoka? It suggests strong early Autumn PVs lead to dramatic weakening by late Dec / early Jan. Interesting.- 1,200 replies
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