perry011110

minutes ago, fergieweathersaid: Key issues into (the nearer-term) medium range are compounded by mismatches between 00z/06z model solutions and imagery. The latter is already looking more amplified in the Atlantic versus output, favouring the slower solutions. This slower progression was always suspected and remains the main caveat set against ongoing deterministic modelling, which continues to show marked swings including run-to-run within the same suites (and even lately between UKMO-GM Operational and Parallel suites). No detailed analysis of current output is really trustworthy into the start of next week... Many thanks Ian for your unexpected reply, i wasn't criticising the professionals in any way but i just wish everyone would take on board your last sentence..

Well the bbc forecasting is certainly in a bit of a pickle..i remember yesterday seeing a euro4 chart on this forum of varying rain/sleet/snow predictions for Ireland/nw england pushing se..according to there latest forecast there is some uncertainty as to how much rain/snow these places will get..so to me it seems that fi begins at t36 if that..