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Chris1986

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  1. Unfortunately we are not yet seeing a reversal of the zonal mean 60n 10 hpa winds... yet... 1 hpa winds are due to go negative however according to ecm so not a technical SSW but we will have to see what develops.
  2. Jet stream riding very much to the north at the end of the run throwing a deep low to the north of sweden. Any change in the track would be good news. Let's see what the next few runs say
  3. ECM seems to be following the GFS with the low heading towards europe , I do see the ecm not having a low to the south of greenland though which should hopefully allow a greater amount of cold air in across the uk, that is if the low follows A similar evolution to the gfs.
  4. Mucka, The 00z seems to had heard you as a nice low fired into Europe drags a good dose of cold air across the UK not quite as south East as we would want but there is always room for improvement
  5. Gfs&ecm rather different out at 216hrs, not liking the look of the steamroller on ecm...
  6. The idea of a reversal is certainly being flirted with. Apologies for the experimentals I can't get decent 10hpa wind charts.
  7. It would appear as if this is the rise before the fall. 1 hpa winds have gone negative at the end of the forcast.
  8. The final warming is the last stratospheric warming of the season. After this warming, the stratosphere never recovers to its previous state and the vortex breaks up and dissipates. The final warming often occurs in March or April. Sometimes the stratosphere never recovers from what would otherwise be a mid-winter major warming in January or February, and that warming becomes the final warming. Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball that can see the model runs for the stratosphere past the end of the gfs, thus the gut feeling.
  9. I got a niggling feeling that we may be seeing the final throws of a final warming prior to the destruction of the pv until spring / summer only a gut feel
  10. Models are notoriously bad at handling laying snow altering boundary layer temps. Hopefully one big dose could change outputs from what could have been to what is!!
  11. Cropped post :- in other words professional guessing, via best knoledge and current data of course.
  12. I can't see the vortex taking this much of a beating and not going pop. I think by the time we get to the squeeze on the vortex things may be a little more interesting... Hopefully.
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