Chris1986
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Chris1986 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unfortunately we are not yet seeing a reversal of the zonal mean 60n 10 hpa winds... yet... 1 hpa winds are due to go negative however according to ecm so not a technical SSW but we will have to see what develops. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Chris1986 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jet stream riding very much to the north at the end of the run throwing a deep low to the north of sweden. Any change in the track would be good news. Let's see what the next few runs say -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Chris1986 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM seems to be following the GFS with the low heading towards europe , I do see the ecm not having a low to the south of greenland though which should hopefully allow a greater amount of cold air in across the uk, that is if the low follows A similar evolution to the gfs. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Chris1986 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mucka, The 00z seems to had heard you as a nice low fired into Europe drags a good dose of cold air across the UK not quite as south East as we would want but there is always room for improvement -
Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
Chris1986 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Chris1986 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The idea of a reversal is certainly being flirted with. Apologies for the experimentals I can't get decent 10hpa wind charts.- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Chris1986 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It would appear as if this is the rise before the fall. 1 hpa winds have gone negative at the end of the forcast.- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Chris1986 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The final warming is the last stratospheric warming of the season. After this warming, the stratosphere never recovers to its previous state and the vortex breaks up and dissipates. The final warming often occurs in March or April. Sometimes the stratosphere never recovers from what would otherwise be a mid-winter major warming in January or February, and that warming becomes the final warming. Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball that can see the model runs for the stratosphere past the end of the gfs, thus the gut feeling.- 1,200 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Chris1986 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I got a niggling feeling that we may be seeing the final throws of a final warming prior to the destruction of the pv until spring / summer only a gut feel- 1,200 replies
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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
Chris1986 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
Chris1986 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models are notoriously bad at handling laying snow altering boundary layer temps. Hopefully one big dose could change outputs from what could have been to what is!! -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Chris1986 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
Chris1986 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards
Chris1986 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cropped post :- in other words professional guessing, via best knoledge and current data of course. -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
Chris1986 replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I can't see the vortex taking this much of a beating and not going pop. I think by the time we get to the squeeze on the vortex things may be a little more interesting... Hopefully.- 1,200 replies
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