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Chris1986

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Everything posted by Chris1986

  1. Chris1986
    Unfortunately we are not yet seeing a reversal of the zonal mean 60n 10 hpa winds... yet... 1 hpa winds are due to go negative however according to ecm so not a technical SSW but we will have to see what develops.
  2. Chris1986
    Jet stream riding very much to the north at the end of the run throwing a deep low to the north of sweden. Any change in the track would be good news. Let's see what the next few runs say
  3. Chris1986
    ECM seems to be following the GFS with the low heading towards europe , I do see the ecm not having a low to the south of greenland though which should hopefully allow a greater amount of cold air in across the uk, that is if the low follows A similar evolution to the gfs.
  4. Chris1986
    Mucka, The 00z seems to had heard you as a nice low fired into Europe drags a good dose of cold air across the UK not quite as south East as we would want but there is always room for improvement
  5. Chris1986
    Gfs&ecm rather different out at 216hrs, not liking the look of the steamroller on ecm...
  6. Chris1986
    The idea of a reversal is certainly being flirted with. Apologies for the experimentals I can't get decent 10hpa wind charts.
  7. Chris1986
    It would appear as if this is the rise before the fall. 1 hpa winds have gone negative at the end of the forcast.
  8. Chris1986
    The final warming is the last stratospheric warming of the season. After this warming, the stratosphere never recovers to its previous state and the vortex breaks up and dissipates. The final warming often occurs in March or April. Sometimes the stratosphere never recovers from what would otherwise be a mid-winter major warming in January or February, and that warming becomes the final warming. Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball that can see the model runs for the stratosphere past the end of the gfs, thus the gut feeling.
  9. Chris1986
    I got a niggling feeling that we may be seeing the final throws of a final warming prior to the destruction of the pv until spring / summer only a gut feel
  10. Chris1986
    It's not all bad From the 00z out in FI land...
  11. Chris1986
    Models are notoriously bad at handling laying snow altering boundary layer temps. Hopefully one big dose could change outputs from what could have been to what is!!
  12. Chris1986
    Definitely something to watch!!
  13. Chris1986
    Intresting winds from the experimentals.
  14. Chris1986
    Cropped post :- in other words professional guessing, via best knoledge and current data of course.
  15. Chris1986
    I can't see the vortex taking this much of a beating and not going pop. I think by the time we get to the squeeze on the vortex things may be a little more interesting... Hopefully.
  16. Chris1986
    My thinking is that the PV is going to split it's just a question of when and more importantly where. Until the models get to grips with this I think we will be left in limbo with model data.
  17. Chris1986
    I'm fairly sure Recretos has got a phd is meteorology or if not is just a genius either way I'm sure there's not much he doesn't know.... even with English as second language
  18. Chris1986
    Now this is seriously cool. Live time data cracking the pv in 2013 SSW epv_7mb_20121215_20130128.mp4
  19. Chris1986
    We'll I suppose If the polar vortex gets pushed over us It's going to be fricken cold, I particularly like the idea of a north westerly as far as I can see there is every possibility for us to go back into the freezer, if you look at 3 runs on 00z 6z 12z for the same time the difference is considerable and it's all (I think) to do with models handling the SSW. I agree with you 100%.
  20. Chris1986
    Couldn't agree more. Fact is a massive (hopefully) SSW Is underway and 90% have already got the flip flops out for summer. Models are confused as anything at the moment and the mean / control / operational data Is next to useless due to the massive swings in the numerous permutations, my money is definitely not on the mean / control / operational
  21. Chris1986
    Models I believe are confused at the moment, evolution to a genral consensus will have to be a waiting game. We are currently seeing various permutations based on best guess. I hope over the coming days thr models will get a more defined grasp of strat trop strat coupling and the SSW. I do believe however we will not see the corrallation in the models until the last minute. Fingers crossed and all that jazz
  22. Chris1986
    Personally I think it makes it more interesting the split in the warming. Like a boxer working the body waiting for that knock out punch the warming appears to be giving the pv a bit of a battering and previous runs cannot be discounted with regards to theme. Reality is we've been tracking this for weeks now and it would appear as if the wheels are definitely in motion albeit destination unknown, strat is currently warming and the strat trop strat coupling is in motion. The guys in here (the cleaver ones, not me) are like the winter ninjas tracking the cold down wherever it may hide a good dose of hope helps too Now:- A beating:- End of run (still working the body) :- Either way the pv is in the corner and on the ropes. Looking forward seeing the next few rounds over the coming weeks
  23. Chris1986
    Gents where can I find the temp propagation charts from strat down to 1000hpa? Recretos can you help?
  24. Chris1986
    I still reminisce about 2010, I can only live in hope and look for the cold to come GFS have been running the warming theme for a long time now In the strat, it's becoming exciting that it would appear to be coming to fruition. From the below you can see the strat starting to warm. Exciting times!! I am aware that the position of the PV is critical to establishing a cold theme for the UK but according to current model data, at the moment it looks good for us.
  25. Chris1986
    A Few posts up i posted a link to a full explanation of the SSW and it's effects Dr Choen is much better at explaining this than me. And as long as we continue to see the pv distorted or displaced I'm a happy man. I think at the end of the runs we are starting to see the effects of the trop strat trop coupling and it will be exciting to see this develop. I unfortunately can't get the charts For the temperature propagation from strat to trop which would show the temp changes in a better format.
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