The biggest problem throughout the winter,was gaining momentum with the models..and chasing down any cold that was showing up..and that theme has continued the past week..no consistency whatsoever changing day to day!
You can get some extremely cold 850's from the east/northeast seen it many times..I guess it's dependent of where it's sourced from..where as a straight northerly from the arctic..will always be cold!
Maybe feb..just don't want that shortwave near norway..phasing with the energy southwest of iceland..ended up bad,the Azores hp came and ruined things!..only mild here from day 8
Nice 18z run..we get some kind of easterly around day 8 onwards..I still think we can improve around this timeframe..but finally some consistency with the gfs and ecm!it's still looking pretty decent approaching day 10
Good point..the shortwave was a bit random!the east does get a hint of the very cold stuff..perhaps a cold high by day 10..as the coldest air skirts away to the southeast of us!