wishingforsnow

Yeah going from the models in general since last week a change for the worse definitely happened. This August will probably be like June 2012 knowing our luck. Settled weather will be rare until September. The Met Office will probably get on board soon and accept that high pressure and warm weather won't return for god knows how long. Certainly not for the next 4 weeks. Summer is definitely over now Meanwhile Europe will continue to roast in 25 - 30 degrees we will get battered by endless rain, howling winds, below average temperatures and floods with no end in sight for at least a month if not more now. Sigh.

... So summer is over then?

There's no point in even trying. We're going to have to see a massive turnaround in the models and even the Met Office have predictably dropped their settled outlook. I'm getting sick of living in this country and experiencing the same Autumnal crappy weather every flipping season. Plans to re locate to a location where they get actual SEASONS are in the pipeline. Greenland and melting sea ice has ruined our climate and made it more Icelandic. It's awful. Practically EVERYWHERE IN EUROPE is getting normal summer temperatures and decent weather but the UK. After just one decent summer in almost 10 years I've had enough. It's not going to improve this year and it never will. Rant over.

If and only if it gets to August and there has been little in the way of settled and warm weather/heatwaves with unsettled weather prevailing and no improvement at all on the horizion, then I will say the summer has been a poor one. Until then there's plenty of time for periods of improvement and better weather. I'm not writing off the summer based on what the weather has been like in the past week to 10 days. Looks like after today an improvement should slowly start with temperatures up a couple of degrees into mid 20s for the South so it won't feel cooler than average and maybe slowly things will become more settled again once this week is over

There's 2 months of summer left. Plenty of time for a heatwave to happen. One already occurred in the South earlier this month. The weather outlooks don't look predominantely unsettled with no chance of settled weather at all and the Met Office are expecting spells of dry warm weather alternating with the unsettled spells so it's not all bad on the horizion anyway. Granted the chances for better weather look greater he further south you are though. Temperature wise it looks like average or above average except for the far North. Models have been indicating more settled weather to start July off at least, maybe this is a pushback of the more settled weather that was meant to arrive this week before it was clear it would be more unsettled than previously thought.

La Nina hasn't fully started influencing our weather yet. The atmosphere is neutral right now. It's not all down to La Nina - our climate is complex and generally changeable. Models change their outlooks all the time so anything past T+144 can't be relied on with certainty. Hence even things like an improvement for July and even what the weather will be like for next week should be treated with caution as it could all change - things could get worse (hopefully not) or the models could continue with the improvement towards more settled weather as we end June and enter July. There could also be periods of more settled weather at the end of June mixed in with the spells of rain (as the Met Office say) Who knows right now?

It's not just the UK - but also Western Europe who have been plagued by this set up since last week giving more changeable weather to them too. Uninspiring? For the rest of June, maybe. Although the current models have shown the Azores high re establishing itself at the end of the month as posted by @Frosty. Temperature wise it looks better the more South you are. And hopefully the models continue with the hints of improvement for July.

It's silly to write off the summer for everyone based on the fact that we are only just over halfway into June and though it hasn't been as settled as it was at the beginning it has been decent temperature wise in the South. According to the models July could see more in the way of high pressure influence across the South, to begin with and maybe it could spread north too? Who knows. But it's foolish to say there absolutely won't be any more good weather in July and August based on an unsettled second week in June. The Atlantic also hasn't been extremely active since March.

My assessment of the models at the moment is that the rest of June could be rather changeable and mixed, and there probably won't be another settled spell of weather as we saw earlier in the month but early July could see more in the way of settled warm/hot weather especially the South with a better sw/ne jet profile orientated

Well, lets wait and see if they get on board with what the models are showing now which is even more improvement for next week and beyond

I think UKMO's current forecasts for next week were probably done based on what the models were previously showing for which was before the gradual improvements towards a less unsettled picture. And now we have this stellar run from UKMO. Hopefully their upcoming forecasts reflect the latest trends and the high does indeed win out As was mentioned earlier, it's a knife edge really.

Well at least the models don't look completely Autumnal (eg this time in 2012). Nor do they look completely settled. It's going to be mixed for the rest of June and with a North South divide which is unfortunate if you're on the wrong side of it. Hopefully the prospect of a nationwide hot spell does return and get more support in the coming weeks. I'm sure the Met Office including this would mean there is/was some sort of signal indicating a possibility of that outcome but it's too far out to nail on as likely for now.

98-99 had a very short neutral period in the Spring (around a month) before the Nina came steamrolling in May of 98 and continued into 1999.

It did a few days ago but it was removed. Probably because it was low confidence they aren't sure yet if the Azores high will get a chance to build over the UK as a whole or just the South. It's on the periphery but there is a chance it could build. I think they're just waiting to see how things will go for the rest of the month, there could be a slow improvement to settled and warm weather for the UK as a whole or the North/South split could remain. The models are very undecided on that and July is still 3 weeks away at the earliest. But in the immediate timeframe, next week onwards isn't looking terrible with drier and warmer conditions especially in the South present in between rain bands. Temperatures look a couple of degrees warmer than this week too.

It's good to see improvements on next week as we approach it as opposed to things changing for the worse. ECM and GEM look like giving the best conditions if they come off, temperatures would be a little cooler on the GFS but to me it's not completely zonal which is good. According to the Met Office a North-South divide should establish itself for the rest of June but into July there could be high pressure extending itself to the rest of the UK.