Damien

No, we haven't seen that. No, we don't care about what the UK's leading (in fact official?) meteorological forecaster has to say about the coming season ahead we all love and haven't experienced properly nationwide since the late 1980s. No, we have our heads in the sands. No, thank you for enlightening us... oh wise one.

I'm never gonna get any sleep tonight. :lol: When you were at school surely the textbooks didn't factor in greenhouse much - if at all? Thank you for pointing out something that was extremely relevant to my argument that I had missed. Kudos. (That being, of course... the weakness of northerly weather patterns in general - let alone in the modern age.) I was about to type 'We had these weather patterns a lot in the mid-2000s and they still failed to deliver' but then I saw your last point, re.: the south-easterly (often Turkish or in that (maritime) region), and I am inclined to agree on that: but I still believe current synoptics and climate change is going against a true easterly like that of the fabled 1987 or my beloved 1995/96. When I say current synoptics I go back to one of my earlier arguments on the forum of how sheer rare these things are: let alone all the 'ideal' synoptics needed to give us a cold winter based on that weather pattern/(proposed)(?) synopsis. Believe me - a lot had to come together in the atmosphere to give us the mid-1990s. The mid-1980s may have been just a natural variable (am I phrasing that right? sorry - tired), although these synoptics did indeed play a role in it: as they did in much earlier winters. Going back to most recent example though - which I of course as you will know from talking to me in the past always recommend for citing/citation/example usage - of the mid-1990s - that was then: imagine how much sheer synoptics are going to have to come together in the age of 'greenhouse' to give us our fabled 'modern cold winter', LOL (I shouldn't laugh really though... this is like mental trauma for us all). Factor into that as well the theory that the greenhouse effect may be actually changing our synoptics (I/we all mostly on here clearly say for the worst) so that such weather patterns - again let alone the more, shall I say... 'radical'(?) ones needed to get ourselves even a moderately decent cold set-up in the first place - become less prevalent in our meteorological future. You don't seem to have factored this in - your thoughts on that...? Or the climate models to see where they're going to. Or how rare such things are anyway, LOL!

How can a conservative website go on about encroaching ice? I thought they would have been more obsessed with warm weather and increasing temperatures? Strange. Where's Taras Incognito when you need him? Taras - you still in 'the Shed of the Soviets'? :lol:

Excellent post - I'll just add one thing: 4-5 days of sustainable cold are not worth looking forward too IMHO, for me. Well, maybe a bit, but they will be just so short, in the long run, and less likely with each mild Brown-Cameronian winter that goes by, that I will just come to not care about them. Granted, they can be sweet - but I/we all want long, cold days of abundant snow not the short snaps of sleety nothingness they will eventually evolve into. In Not By Fire... But By Ice, Robert Felix once told me he restrained a chapter on 'evolution' effects. He may be right - but the argument in reverse, of course, as well as in an (anti-)climatic effect, as global warming continues to consume us all in North-Western Europe. Back to work we go....

It did in 2006. The winter was mild. Climatically correct, but "these trends" developed in early winter 2002/03, 2004/05 (bar the one hit-and-miss (for most miss admittedly - take that into account) in February 2005), 2005/06, etc.. All the winters, bar the aforementioned, were mild. (Certainly snowless - à la December 2002.) No offence - but an even worse argument IMHO. January 2004 delivered squat. So did a few other occasions when there were "much-hyped" northerlies (led by the usual crowd of naïve idiots like toad, I have and have no far of saying). Interest in northerlies then diminished, and were replaced by interest in easterlies - when these failed to deliver, like I mentioned above, are we now back to northerlies? Very unusual memory, I may say. (Kind of political, actually, *ahem*. ) Consider the last "northerlies" we had were, like, 5 years ago (wasn't snowless winter 2003/04 the most 'northerly' (not that I doubt it though) winter on record since something like 1969?, LOL), and they delivered squat then, are you really that naïve to think that they will deliver 5 years on with yet more warming having happened, LOL? No offence, but your arguments will just get you burned - and, as a three-year somewhat 'veteran' of the boards, who has surely been burnt before (your neck of the woods, mate?), surely you should know this? Come on guys. Surely someone must have the meteorological arguments to pull down these arguments. I know it's sad; but it's true. Do you think I wanna sit here typing this; smashing peoples' dreams up like a Scrooge. :o Or even not evolve to alter our winter, as I explained above. :lol: By the way - if I recall correctly, there wasn't much precipitation in winter 2003/04 (the January northerly) either. If there was - it fell as rain, as consistent with the current greenhouse models and the 'modern' era. Bring back the '90s. D.

I'll chip in (probably for one last time) seeing as tomorrow is the "big day"...: Sad truth is you will probably be right - based again on the patterns of recent years (mild winter then slightly cool/mildly wintry (early) spring). Too right on oil + the economy too. What's the "triumphed story" this year? Some big high over North-Western Europe? Bah. I don't believe Joe B&stardi for a second: and I think the MetO will get it wrong when they go "below" tomorrow. Just as well I'll be in snowier plains anyway (CE).... And, unlike 'Captain Whingealot' (I can say this now all I want because I am off and won't need my Internet soon), I will enjoy the snow - not spend the entire winter posting about how 'meagre' or whatever it all is. "Roll a snowball for the kids... Jesus Christ don't keep it hid." "And the forecast's out on the Met Office website, read it on your monitor burn it in your.... head." Take care everyone.

OK guys I've not seen the models for a while... WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????? Is anymore coming? Never been as scared in my life. If that was Richter Scale #1 what the hell do Japan and LA go through (at Richter 6, etc.)?

Extreme rainfall - greenhouse; drought (inc. in the UK) - greenhouse. That one's the strangest to me. (Oh, and, of course, how a small crisp packet (yes, I do - and would of course encourage others to do so - put mine in the bin and recycle) lying there in the grass just by the side of the road could possibly be warming up the world by just lying there? I suppose the packets of crisps in my cupboard are also causing greenhouse gasses(2) - right? ) Don't believe the hype. Emissions deffo crisp packets - not sure....

Laughable. Just laughable. All this talk of global warming going on and you sit there talking about snow. Are you looking for the way to your nearest local comedy club but couldn't find it and/or got kicked out? Remember: less days at work lost due to snow. The sad reality we face - and, indeed, the sick mind of a capitalist. "Sick and tried... of always being sick and tired..."

Well said. Difference for me is I'll be in the Alps soon. Suffolkboy_- one good way to tell if a coming forecast will be proven verified (though this is not always the case - à la NOAA, Ian Currie, BG, etc.) is if the previous few months (prior to now - Oct. 1) have been (generally) correct. And have they been so far?

Noteto Note to Admins - I know you may not like me posting these "Archive.org" links, but this time may I do so anyway? I always enjoy reading TWO's forecasts and both respect and commend them for their general "first of the month" rule in regard to weather forecasts. (Compare this with the Met Office's "We must keep updating this (seasonal) forecast every week to assure it's right!" stance.) But: http://web.archive.org/web/20040901102422/...heroutlook.com/ That is practically the same forecast!!! Surely? Here's another one!!! http://web.archive.org/web/20030920005306/...heroutlook.com/ Again, same patterns. Come on TWO. Care to explain more on your methods this time? Note to anyone who may read this: I'm not doing this to attack TWO - I am doing this out of genuine surprise. I must read this same forecast every two years from TWO and yet when November comes nothing. So I'm challenging TWO - honestly - and with the maximum respect and patience they deserve with years now of experience - to explain this forecast in more detail this time and why they have come to these conclusions. Thank you.

Am I in a time warp? "November snow chance" - and even that picture! - is the same every year (or more likely every two as the memories age)! Come on people! TWO, pattern matching does not work. These are merely presenting weather patterns, like Metcheck's yearly "LRF" does. (Link.) As in 2005, just because there are *some* favourable weather patterns throughout the rest of the year (this year - the cooler summer; in 2005 - the cooler mid-September period), doesn't mean that the rest of the year will conform to the "norm". Surely this forecast is a "demo" or a "test"? October also being "a month of two halves" rings a bell as well. That said, this backs up my idea of it being a "2001/02-like" winter preceded by a 2001-like autumn (with a perhaps 2000-like November), rather ironically. :o

That said NOAA had a good summer, according to Paul (the NW forecasts are based on their output, yes?). If so, gulp. But the winter forecast has been "back-forth, back-forth" "cold-mild, cold-mild" for some time now - though the overall consensus seems to be a slightly cooler than average start followed by with a well above average end. So again as I said in the other thread maybe a very 2001/02-type character to this winter starting with a very 2001-like autumn(?). Certainly this summer *has* resembled 2001 in *some* aspects IMHO (mainly in it's poor end than anything else).

ENSO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTSea.gif

Even though I don't really trust it, just seen the NOAA forecast for the next few months/the full winter (by now). It really is looking dire if the Netweather winter forecast is based on that. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mSeaNorm.gif Let's see what the ECPC GFS update brings in a few days/late next week (hopefully). To me, at the moment, on those NOAA charts, the pattern is looking all too similar to recent years at the precise moment - a very cool/cold October across most of Northern Eurasia/Europe-Russia, with a followed by a significantly above average and south-south-westerly winter. :lol: But, fortunately we all know what the track record of the NOAA CFS is like is the long-range forecasting field. :lol:

Also, there was more ice in the North Atlantic (certainly our little bit of it) in the 1890s - I suppose we should look out for that *sign* as well. B) (No offence meant - but using these kind of "aged" patterns just doesn't work IMHO. Yes, that December chart is certainly not good. Reminds me of IRI's latest (well, now August) thoughts that I posted a while back. What's January showing?

Yes, and I also posted (later) that some long-term climate models in fact showed the winter of 2005/06, while indeed slightly cooler than the average over recent years, to be in fact still "warmer" than average (albeit this time (perhaps) only slightly) and more or less effectively "business as usual" for the Northern Hemisphere/North-Western Europe. I did however say would try and dig out the relevant documents in re. to this but have not yet done so. I think Paul Dawlish may have them. B) Roger - with all due respects - this is a false base IMHO. The winter of 1739/40 was indeed a very severe one (one of the worst on record if my memory serves me correctly?) although it did occur, as you also rightly say, at the end of a long period of run of mild and above normal winters (maybe even warmer than today? :o ) However, using this winter as a "base" ot predict the (near) future weather is just nonsense IMHO because: 1. It was like over two centuries and a half ago, 2. The climate was very different back then (although again the (perhaps semi-valid similarities to today are acknowledged), 3 We are in a period of "warmer globe" now - certainly over our neck of the woods, read into that what you will. I even mentioned earlier in this thread how using the 1980s-type weather patterns to try and determine our future weather was also equally as erroneous due to the same reasons - and the current "global warming" significantly above average temperatures (certainly again in NW Europe). Late 1990s-type patterns are more and the most useful at best, IMHO. Although long-term factors in forecasting such as CET averages over the last 30-year period (1971-2000) shoudn't be taken out and overlooked IMHO, nor conversely over baked. Lastly, Whilst again very true, we *have* been here before - with albeit smaller to larger factors - and the following winters have only produced what has only amounted to a short (well, month long) period of below average temperatures and snow like mid-Feb.-mid-March 2005 and the seemingly never ending cold, dry, snowless days that was winter 2005/06.

What's that you say? I can't here you up there? Shout a bit louder! (On a serious note yes I will try and find this research that showed the 1980s to be a rather more "cold" anomaly as far as the Twentieth Century goes and in fact one of the coldest decades that it could respectively boast over all; I will try and have a look next week.) I'm part dreading them myself. You know, how it is - we build ourselves up then a fall. And, looking at the rollercoaster, a sheer downward plunge must be coming soon - just hope we ain't riding the NetWeatheresis. (Wasn't there a downward plunge last August and then a "upward plunge" last September when the Sept./Aug. MetO dynamic runs were revealed? )

New LRFs in a week my friend so just wait we will (hopefully) have a new thread by then. ECPC's February is what I'm most looking forward too although the next Met Office runs will be crucial IMHO.

Hi laserguy, Just quickly - I now refer to you as a "good, informative poster" because it turned out that you did not write the comments I incorrectly asserted you did earlier - and hence duly apologised for this. Your "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" "outburst" (dare I say ) was little similar to mine - a moment of madness in an otherwise sensible discussion that I have both enjoyed (and partially regretted, *ahem*). I like posting here and the discussions here and would hate to think what I'm doing is somehow "turning people away", so I apologise if things got a little "hot under the collar" with us all earlier and feel it's time to turn the heat down in this thread, so to speak. (A very apt thing to do as well as winter approaches. ) Wales said nothing wrong - I just came in and corrected him on his incorrect assertions on how he had read and his misunderstanding of the earlier commentary and chart (namely the November ECPC August run offering) in this thread. I have also apologised if I was a little "direct" in the way I had spoken - and nor did I realise he was talking to me (partly) at the time - although that's another reason why I would to correct somebody as so: I don't or wouldn't want somebody new - who was only starting to learn about the weather - something we all I'm sure encourage on NetWeather - misinterpreting and misunderstanding the charts and commentary I had posted in the way that he (and others like him, perhaps(?)) had done - namely taking it as "gospel" and "granted". It will save him (and again others like him) a little bit of "heartache" later down the line, I'm sure you will either agree or find out. Good luck on your motorbike trip and your winter 2009/10 "forecast", LOL.

Yeah, as any weather man will tell you (I think either Michael Fish or Bill Giles was on the radio recently and they were asked this very question - and gave the very same answer): it's because the winds are blowing from the wrong direction - namely westerly. Ian Currie's weather forecasts centre heavily around wind direction but have not had much success of late IMHO. And the worrying thing was, when it did finally blow from the east in (late) February 2005, only a few lucky areas (admittedly my own included) got the magical white stuff. So worrying times indeed - basically we *really* need to try this easterly theory out again, as 2005/06 delivered squat to my area in spite of/except for low temperatures and clear, dry days on end.

Good post and with this let's get back on track people! The weather is about cooling down for winter - and it's time for this thread to cool too.

Thanks for the tip on Icarus I'll look up his paper (and the Archibald one). To be honest - to the guy who used the word "scum" earlier (NOT laserguy) - to whom my comments were directed: I'm sure you will agree I was entirely right. As for laserguy - he's a good, informative poster who "makes you think" (as you do: which is always a good thing in my book) but posts like "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" will prompt a response - even if it's just a rebuttal and a correction - from us rational, respectful enthusiasts like myself and Ian Brown (who both commented on what he wrote). Oh man we both know it's true. May the fun begin. Anyhow I was hoping for a "quieter" weekend this weekend - but it all started with a post from Wales123098. But it doesn't matter because I at least hope we all learned something this last couple of days and that the facts here will help people and our new members understand the weather when they Google the dreaded and immortal search topic "winter forecasts 2007/08 UK". Speak to you all soon.

Crikey Stratos you're on fire today mate. Good post so I'll pick up on some points: 1998 was just the single warmest year on record/ever recorded (that may have changed to date?) because of increased (in fact record here as well) El Niño, solar activity, "global warming", etc.? I think the 1940s were the joint warmest overall period along with (perhaps(?)) the 1990s. (I forgot what I was originally going to right here. I think it was something like:) Excellent point, and the 1980s were very much a part of this period. "The last genuinely cold winters" were still a fluke - because they deviate from the natural maritime North-Western Europe norm. Sure, they are still/were a natural occurrence: as are above normal temperatures and periods from time to time; so thus not a "fluke" in the long run of time - but by overall, natural standards (and certainly greenhouse ones). The "sylla-what"? The "Germ-whos"? Nah, just kidding mate. Of course I know about the Eastern advance and how it was halted by the bad weather from Russia (as had equally thwarted Napoleon 100 years earlier). But that was in the wider context of a normal (by Russia standards) cold winter - which do occur, as you rightly said in your previous comment, as part of natural variability and even general warming. OK - and I didn't even mention "cold" - per se - I mentioned cool. But nonetheless I hinted at though so the models I may have checked may have been wrong. True - but that was just a minor point about my point about the 1980s winters being rather cold and hence (somewhat) "un-natural" (i.e.: un-the maritime British norm) and that they only *seemed* colder given: a) How cold it actually was at the time. b ) The sheer "warmth" of the present, c) It being rather recent history and peoples' memories. You said it yourself - and I stand by the idea that the 1980s winters in general, while not a "strange occurrence" - sorry if I made it out to be that way - they were certainly, once again, "un-the maritime British norm" given their general colder than average (average on the whole 1979-87) nature and the records that were broken in, as we both rightly say, December 1981, read into these records and figures what we may. (By the way: "to somebody your age they just seem that way" - better than someone who was not my age, i.e.: younger than me, seeing that as "normal" or "the norm". If it's not misguided (usually younger - no offence but again I mean in the wider of context of acquired knowledge and what we know about the weather, etc.) newbies - it's selective memory. ) Not in the context of warming - that's just the wider point. I meant in the general context. And by the way you mention computer models yourself in this thread - yes, they have been the "harbingers" of doom - us able to predict the future (currently warming? But also Gulf Stream "cooling"(?)) weather but also look back more accurately at past periods like the 1980s (and even 40s!) as well as to the future and make us see where we're going and also what we've done wrong. Hence this was also my point about the 1980s - some of these-type long-range major models did show the 1980s to be a rather "warm" period for the Earth overall (kind of the warmest decade of the 1890s-1940s warmest decades ). I am doing - using mainly the 1970s, the 1990s, and the whole of the Twentieth Century. The present warming is just a newer, more urgent point that, as I said, adds to the perception above of those 1980s winters being the British "norm". Anyhow I forgotten how insightful our old discussions were and it's nice to talk with you again.

I thought I was quite chilled. :o As Steve Murr says - it's all a bit of fun; although weather forecasts can and will be used for serious purposes i.e.: military planning, agricultural planning, etc.. We are after all all weather enthusiasts - just some *see* the weather in different ways than others (and I'm sure everyone will agree that using the word "scum" and "degeneration" to describe the weather is a bit harsh ). Last night got a little heated - not to mention off-topic - though it's good to see recent posts have righted this wrong - and just as well as the impending updates at the start of next month will bring us new and updated LRFs to mull over. Wales'guy' - great photos again! Laserguy - good post and yes I did acknowledge that I was wrong about the "loft" thing. I apologise for that. Likewise I apologise for attacking you for using the word "scum" when you did in fact not use it: I'll try and dig out who did a little later. :o :o :o