Nigelapplewhit4

Looks like talk of a heatwave was wide of the mark - look at the 06z from the GFS coming out now! It might be a bit warmer than normal for those in the UK looking to live in the SE corner but look at the Northerly coming on Wednesday next week. Icelandic trough making its move south/south east and the Azores high retrogresses well into the Atlantic.. There is a slight attempt for the ridge to push back into the SW approaches. An extremely powerful jet blasts across Northern Europe next week.

The CFS is showing High Pressure dominant for the next two weeks - first week to the west of the UK. second week anchored over the Bay of Biscay/NW France. Third week it drifts over Eastern Europe with trough to the west of Ireland - could this allow southerly airflow? Above average temps for the next six weeks though to varying degress.

ECMWF charts are as follows:

I think it might be on to something in terms of signalling a lot more uncertainty - never a good thing when at just +6-8 day range. Lets see how it pans out. I do rely on the GFS and have for the last 16 years of model watching. Here are the 18Z GEFS ensembles for Cheshire: operational is at the top of the different model runs which surprise me i thought it would be more in the mid range. op

Thanks for posting the GEM 00z - my hopes are being restored!.

You can't deny the modelling!

The usual downgrades have started.....hopes of a sustained heatwave are disappearing fast according to the modelling. my Confidence of 48 hours ago has gone and the confidence of heat for the UK in the models is ebbing away very quickly too. 30 degrees was forecast for Wrexham on the 13th July - this has now dropped to 21 and 27 on the 15th has dropped down to just 19.

gfs is a horror story

I'm praying to the heat gods that this is a statistical outlier but we are only at +6 days range so there must be an element of truth in the modelling. It will be really frustrating if the trough is incoming mid week. Looks like the high pressure is much weaker than i was expecting. The latest BBC Weather is still showing high temps for England next week so there is some hope.

I dont like the GFS 00z this morning - According to this there wont be a heatwave. have a look at the jetstream firing at the UK on the 12th July, Even worse by midnight on the 13th. Plenty of rain for North West UK and NorthWest England incoming . Is the GFS having a wobble about the heat ? Even the SE is only 23 at mid day on the 13th. As a heat lover im gutted. is it supported by other models.

I normally trust and rely on GFS as the model i analyse ever six hours - perhaps i should look at ECMWF and UK Met office models instead! No heat in the West in this set up Horrible set up at midnight on the 14th July. GFS is having a wobble about mid week heat! A chilly start to Saturday 16th July with only the extreme south of England holding on to 25 degrees with only 15-17 in the North of England and Wales. I agree that GFS can go and do one !

The only way it will hit 40 is in my conservatory. Saying that it was 42 there today while only 16 outside. ! I knew i was going to get told off ! I'm sorry!

Yes - 50 miles away it could be 30-32 while Manchester only maxing at 23! Even leeds is 28-29 and Nottingham 29-30. Very frustrating for those in Chester/Manchester area with overcast skies! I won't go any further and will have my rants on the observations pages next week when the heatwave is a washout for those in the West of England.

Met office text forecast nothing like what is shown in their models- before we get there we will face overcast skies all week.

Meteogroup who use ECMWF are only predicting 28 in the SE on that date. In my area (Wrexham) its only show 22 not 34 - even London only has a feels like temp of 33 not 42 It will never happen in my lifetime - maybe in the 2050s or 2060s when i'm dead.