LRD

mountain shadow Ah, man, not that old chestnut again. It is just NOT true Anyway, not too much to worry about in the ensembles. Average and doesn't look too wet IMBY. Just hope the sun comes out occasionally. Hopefully we'll experience a big warm (and dry) up towards Easter and into April. That'll soon be in the range of the everyday GFS output

Looking at the ensembles and 12z ops, we could be looking at dramatic changes of weather type and airmass from day to day. Typical for late winter/early spring, I guess ECM 144 and 168

Well the 12z op wasn't quite an outlier but... First it was amongst the coldest members of the suite, then it was amongst the warmest, then it ended as the coldest

Well, yeah, but I haven't drawn any conclusions. Thought that's what the exact gist of my post was

AO- Gut instinct after looking at these models, on and off, for years And, as I say, a warm S'ly on the 6z and now a chilly N'ly in similar time frames on the 12z. No consistency = unconvincing

RJBingham Yep. The N'ly does continue to the end of the run but it's FI and let's see where it sits in the pack. The op was showing a S'ly on the 6z which kind of sums up FI really! But they're charts, they're there and available so nothing wrong with discussing them I don't think I actually would be ok with a cold spell in March (as long as it doesn't go on and on) if it meant a warm April and May

Very chilly GFS 12z FI But it all looks unconvincing

To be fair using a GFS op run to 'cherry pick' is better than seeking out perturbation 8, 15 or 27, etc, etc, which some on here do. But, you're right, the 6z op was a very warm run compared to the ensemble suite It looks as though winter is going to end on an unpleasant note with some wintry weather on high ground in the north. Looking like cold rain for most of us, though. GFS 12z shows a right dog's dinner in its latter frames

You can sense the tumbleweed rolling around in this thread! GFS ensembles from about next Thursday won't please anyone (apart from some snow loving sheep and villagers on some northern and north-western hills). Cool/coldish rain, no snow, and no spring-like conditions

Thanks for those charts Dennis - looks like lots of chilly rain for the UK. Maybe some wintryness, occasionally, on northern high ground

minus10 Don't get me wrong, I'm not having a pop at anyone who uses them. If it helps an individual interpret and come to their own conclusions then all good. There is more than one way to skin a cat. I just think they have to be used very carefully and with some scepticism My personal tastes mean I don't like them, don't use them and take little notice of them. Temp and precipitation anomalies are a different kettle of fish of course. A massive pinch of salt should be taken with any pressure anomaly chart beyond 5-7 days. Even more salt than the everyday output

Johnp EC46 does have temp and precip anomalies though. Much more useful and much less ambiguous. Not saying it's accurate but it does at least give a more 'real-world' view than pressure anomaly charts

Mike Poole Yep, sure, I get that they're not an averaging product. In that sense I think they've been even MORE misleading as it's not uncommon to have many clusters showing reds where we want them (in winter, anyway) and nowt happens. But, it could be that they are actually pretty accurate. As reds over G'land (where pressure is usually low) could just mean a weaker low pressure than normal - but that is still an anomaly but still doesn't lead to wintry conditions. Similar to blues over Europe where pressure is usually fairly high even in winter. Could just be a weaker area of high pressure but still high pressure But average or not, I really, REALLY dislike pressure anomaly charts.. As you can probably tell

Mike Poole Totally agree and, as I say, it's an anomaly chart so can easily mislead. I distrust all anomaly charts and how they represent data. How many times have reds been shown over Greenland and Scandi and nothing has happened? What is the point of all the pretty colours if it's the contours that are important? You do a sterling job reporting back on these but I guess it's just my personal taste. I don't like them and don't feel they present data (both forecast and present) that well

Absolutely remarkable warmth today. Took the dog out wearing just 2 layers this morning. Feels like April And little sign of anything cold over the next couple of weeks. It's going to turn less mild, of course but nothing out of the ordinary looking at these ensemble suites from GFS and then ECM