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LRD

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Everything posted by LRD

  1. mountain shadow Ah, man, not that old chestnut again. It is just NOT true Anyway, not too much to worry about in the ensembles. Average and doesn't look too wet IMBY. Just hope the sun comes out occasionally. Hopefully we'll experience a big warm (and dry) up towards Easter and into April. That'll soon be in the range of the everyday GFS output
  2. Looking at the ensembles and 12z ops, we could be looking at dramatic changes of weather type and airmass from day to day. Typical for late winter/early spring, I guess ECM 144 and 168
  3. Well the 12z op wasn't quite an outlier but... First it was amongst the coldest members of the suite, then it was amongst the warmest, then it ended as the coldest
  4. Well, yeah, but I haven't drawn any conclusions. Thought that's what the exact gist of my post was
  5. AO- Gut instinct after looking at these models, on and off, for years And, as I say, a warm S'ly on the 6z and now a chilly N'ly in similar time frames on the 12z. No consistency = unconvincing
  6. RJBingham Yep. The N'ly does continue to the end of the run but it's FI and let's see where it sits in the pack. The op was showing a S'ly on the 6z which kind of sums up FI really! But they're charts, they're there and available so nothing wrong with discussing them I don't think I actually would be ok with a cold spell in March (as long as it doesn't go on and on) if it meant a warm April and May
  7. To be fair using a GFS op run to 'cherry pick' is better than seeking out perturbation 8, 15 or 27, etc, etc, which some on here do. But, you're right, the 6z op was a very warm run compared to the ensemble suite It looks as though winter is going to end on an unpleasant note with some wintry weather on high ground in the north. Looking like cold rain for most of us, though. GFS 12z shows a right dog's dinner in its latter frames
  8. You can sense the tumbleweed rolling around in this thread! GFS ensembles from about next Thursday won't please anyone (apart from some snow loving sheep and villagers on some northern and north-western hills). Cool/coldish rain, no snow, and no spring-like conditions
  9. Thanks for those charts Dennis - looks like lots of chilly rain for the UK. Maybe some wintryness, occasionally, on northern high ground
  10. minus10 Don't get me wrong, I'm not having a pop at anyone who uses them. If it helps an individual interpret and come to their own conclusions then all good. There is more than one way to skin a cat. I just think they have to be used very carefully and with some scepticism My personal tastes mean I don't like them, don't use them and take little notice of them. Temp and precipitation anomalies are a different kettle of fish of course. A massive pinch of salt should be taken with any pressure anomaly chart beyond 5-7 days. Even more salt than the everyday output
  11. Johnp EC46 does have temp and precip anomalies though. Much more useful and much less ambiguous. Not saying it's accurate but it does at least give a more 'real-world' view than pressure anomaly charts
  12. Mike Poole Yep, sure, I get that they're not an averaging product. In that sense I think they've been even MORE misleading as it's not uncommon to have many clusters showing reds where we want them (in winter, anyway) and nowt happens. But, it could be that they are actually pretty accurate. As reds over G'land (where pressure is usually low) could just mean a weaker low pressure than normal - but that is still an anomaly but still doesn't lead to wintry conditions. Similar to blues over Europe where pressure is usually fairly high even in winter. Could just be a weaker area of high pressure but still high pressure But average or not, I really, REALLY dislike pressure anomaly charts.. As you can probably tell
  13. Mike Poole Totally agree and, as I say, it's an anomaly chart so can easily mislead. I distrust all anomaly charts and how they represent data. How many times have reds been shown over Greenland and Scandi and nothing has happened? What is the point of all the pretty colours if it's the contours that are important? You do a sterling job reporting back on these but I guess it's just my personal taste. I don't like them and don't feel they present data (both forecast and present) that well
  14. Absolutely remarkable warmth today. Took the dog out wearing just 2 layers this morning. Feels like April And little sign of anything cold over the next couple of weeks. It's going to turn less mild, of course but nothing out of the ordinary looking at these ensemble suites from GFS and then ECM
  15. Agreed. The ECM clusters have been useless this winter (and last). But they're anomaly charts which are not to be trusted in the slightest. The EC46 has also performed poorly despite me defending it at times this season. Speaking of which and not that it matters much bearing in mind its record this last 2 months or so but the EC46 has lost pretty much all meaningful northern blocking. However, it does go with some potentially cool mobility in the last days of this pathetic 'winter'. So northern hills could see a last hurrah in terms of something even slightly resembling winter weather I hope it's right. Bring on a very pleasant spring and a warm summer with plenty of widespread thunderstorm activity
  16. daz_4 Up to yesterday the central England temp was running at 4 degrees C above average. Utterly remarkable Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download.url Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK GFS 12z is as Westerly a run as you can get
  17. Spring continues its unrelenting march (pardon the pun) into February. UK winters are getting eaten at both ends of the season. Spring eating into Feb and autumn eating up Dec and Jan The CET must be sky high for this month so far I dread a cold spring which can happen with a stupidly mild winter. Hoping for warm patterns between now and mid October now. I especially hate cold Aprils and Mays. Fortunately we haven't had too many down the last 20 or so years but it's still possible JoeShmoe As I say, I just hope we don't pay for it being lovely now with a cold, dreary spring
  18. In all clusters there are very few signs of low anomalies over Europe. That's a big problem
  19. Well, quite. I realise that. IH = northerly jet = IH = no cold
  20. joggs and it ended up resulting in next to nothing! A few frosts under a cold high. Absolutely thrilling stuff
  21. joggs Iberian Heights is a great name for a nightclub! GFS 12z FI is looking as though it's setting up cold But Iberian Heights there once again
  22. Chris Smith Well, a bit before my time but I'd settle for a summer like 1975! On another subject, EC46 has lifted the low anomaly north so it's more over us late Feb and into March - rather than to our south as per previous runs. So, although there is northern blocking it looks like we still might be susceptible to Atlantic conditions. Could go either way though EDIT - the cold temp anomalies have now gone too. Looks more average
  23. If only it was July No quick route to 'proper' cold there. But it will be frosty I'd have thought (at least in England and Wales)
  24. MOGREPS 12z Nothing in the south for later this week. So it looks like a lot of rain. A gentle fall in 850s towards Valentine's Day but nothing to write home about here The north is looking much more reliably cold in the longer term and looking cold this week too. Transient snow possible before a (temporary?) Friday/weekend warm-up. Manchester:
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