Redbull165

I can show you also for other models. In the last few weeks ECMWF was the most accurate model, followed by UKMO, GFS. But in the last days GFS is surprisingly the best one. The point is, that every model has its flaws.

In terms of accuracy usually the GFS00Z, 12Z runs are better than 6z,18z.

Perfect GFS12Z run.

And its happening. For the first time this year when El nino developed, we are seeing Enso area 3.4 warmer with anomalies than 1+2. Modoki El nino slowly taking its place. Difference in last 7 days. The western part over the Pacific is seeing a lot of warming last few days, the eastern part quite the opposite around the coast of Ecuador.

Hopefully modoki el nino slowly developing. We saw a lot of cooling in the last few days over 1+2 area. Interesting read about MJO index.

GloSea5 is still showing transition into central based (modoki) el nino, towards the second part of the winter. December 2023. January 2024. February 2024. March 2024.

My mistake, I already deleted the post, right after you posted.

The ENSO area around 1+2 is cooling consistently in the last few weeks. The warming is going more towards 3.4 area. Also SOI (Southern Oscillation) index in the last few days is actually on the positive side. I see quite a big chance for central based (hybrid) el nino developing, towards the second part of the winter. But just my opinion of course. Glosea SST prediction. I am still waiting for a new update now in november. Different types of El nino events.

Indeed. The number of sunspots have gradually decreased in the last 15 days.

Interesting.

Oh look what have we here...

Mostly Scandinavia will see a massive extension of snow cover in the next 10 days. A good sign I would say.

Great post, yeah that area could be really crucial for the beginning of winter. Here is a CFS model showing further cooling of the ocean in the next weeks.

Quite interesting.

Yeah lets wait at least for november when the new ECMWF update comes out. It could be again quite different then this one which was posted today. I would say everything is possible. After all this heat/warm over Europe in last weeks/months, when the change will come it will be probably even more extreme. This anticyclone wont last forever. Fingers crossed.