Brucie

I also feel that people tend to rely too much on heating. I see loads of people around here walking around outside and inside in shorts and t shirts even in the depths of winter, and then come home to the comfort of a heated house. Yes, quite a lot of people have a genuine need to keep warm (these are the ones who we need to think and worry about) but those who just take heating for granted cause: a) increase in personal expense on heating b) needless pressure on national grid c) unnecessary carbon footprint Just use your sense and put some more layers on when your house is moderately chilly (15c). Below 13c, even I might think again though!! David, Northallerton

Thanks Ben for that explanation. Let's hope for some rain then! Thanks also, Bluearmy.

Don't often post in here - but read messages daily. We really are facing an exceptional spell of weather, irrespective of whether the extreme temperatures materialise. Charts are ominous also due to the ongoing lack of rain being forecast for much of England and Wales in particular. IF we potentially have electrical 'rainless' storms next week like has been noted, wouldn't that run the real risk of grass / moorland fires given the tinder dry ground??

Very vague. 'Precipitation' and 'wintry hazards' seem the buzz words at the moment. I think even the met office are struggling to predict what will happen in detail.

What is interesting to me is how organized the polar vortex is over on the Pacific side of the northern hemisphere so far this winter (and late autumn). Recent winters have seen the bulk of the vortex over on this side of the hemisphere (and an angry one too). Why is this? Can anyone enlighten me? If this keeps up, then surely the Atlantic sector would be much more prone to amplification? David

Thanks. -AAM at our latitudes is what we want then for the upcoming winter to hold interest. However, I feel that there will be other factors at play. What we primarily need is something to implode the increasingly strong polar vortex, be it consistent wave activity, heat flux. At least then we have opportunities for cold. Unless this happens, then I think any high latitude blocking will probably just manifest itself as a mid-latitude belt of high pressure at best.

I seem to recall that the developing La Nina did not couple with the atmospheric state in the summer. Is this right? Whatever, we are in a 'new norm' where nothing goes as planned. Mind, I suppose there's always been chaos theory regarding the weather.

I can think of worse ECM charts. At least there's no raging zonality with a powerful polar vortex forecast. One would hope that a prolonged period of southerlies in the UK's vicinity (as forecast) would result in WAA into northern latitudes and place some stress on the vortex. That's the hope!! As an aside, I can't remember such a projected period of southerlies in recent Novembers. (Or is my memory failing??). Maybe, just maybe, this winter will deliver some long awaited cold. David

Here in the NE of N Yorkshire, it has been a poor summer. Aside from a few nice days, it has been noticeable for the lack of sunshine and a lot of rain. A lot to do with the relatively southerly jet stream, IMO. Indeed, these last few days have taken a turn for the worse with yet more rain and gloom. Bring back spring! David in Northallerton

High pressure is not likely to be 'sat' to our north or northeast: it is likely to be 'sitting' to our north or northeast. Grrr...even the professionals are getting sucked in by the modern state of grammar! This aside, I have never known as much chopping and changing as frequently as this from the Met Office. David

Yes, I have been thinking of other variables that might be prompting doubts on this SSW propagating down into the troposphere and I did self-moot the fact that we are in the process of transferring into a wQBO, which may be an obstacle to complete propagation. However, one would think that there would a lag of a few months (4 or 5 months) from the start of transition in the uppermost layers of the stratosphere to the wQBO affecting the tropospheric patterns. The fact that we are having another major SSW taking place so soon after the SSW in February this year leads me to contemplate that, in a warming world, we will see more of these SSWs in winter. This is due to anomalous warmth persisting into autumn creating more and more vertical heat flux and wave-breaking into the polar vortex. What do others think? David, Northallerton

Finding it fascinating following the sun's activity during its descent into solar minimum. The latest uninterrupted run of spotless days (15) must be one of the longest yet in this cycle and we are almost inevitably going to exceed 200 days this year now. I struggle to understand why, if the sun is our main global energy driver, I have not heard more about the increasingly low solar activity as a natural factor in the current reports about climate change. Anyway, how deep will be the solar minimum go when it's here!! David

The weather looks to be stuck in a rut over the next week or so and quite benign too away from the N & W. Dare I say mild or very mild too! I guess this is typical of a jetstream which is meandering wildly and is weak in nature. It can't stay mild and dry for the rest of November...or can it?? Oh...I'm hunting for cold too but we have winter to come. David

I share other people's fear on here that these amazing synoptics for cold have maybe come a bit too early...but you never know. It has been a strange year for weather & something has definitely impacted upon the coupling up of the stratospheric and tropospheric vortex in recent years. Looking at the charts, I can see there's a lot of Alaskan / Aleutian high pressure reaching right into the Arctic. Is this what we should be watching for in the next few weeks if we want a continued disruption of the polar vortex & a possibility of a canadian warming? TIA David, Northallerton

Just had a very heavy snow shower here (lasted about 10 mins but settled very easily as it's so cold, -3c). Plenty more snow to come by the looks of things. How things have changed down here n the space of 45 mins!