scotty_boy_winter
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Everything posted by scotty_boy_winter
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Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze)
scotty_boy_winter replied to pottyprof's topic in Climate Change
This graph says it all. Looking at where we are over a near 1500 year period puts it all into context for the doubters..- 320 replies
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Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion
scotty_boy_winter replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well it appears the info I sneaked from October from the horses mouth of the met has proved correct so far. An Atlantic changeable dominated winter so far. The latest from the met doesn't make better reading. March could be the coldest month over the next quarter -
Lmfao!!!! Great to see you move the goalposts now you've realised the first week in December won't be mild!!! Very very clever Ian. Unfortunately you can't fool anyone and thats why people dismiss the majority of what you have to say. You said a mild first week. It's been cold. Now you say a mild last third. Even if it is mild you won't be right. If you were any good you would have got the first week right. Just keep saying mild, mild , mild and eventually you'll get one right (;
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The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I will speak to him when he gets back from Cyprus. He's based there at the minute working alongside the RAF. Hell then be in Germany for 5 weeks. Mr madden needs bringing down a peg or two that's for sure -
The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The guy is an absolute fraud. How he is getting paid to write the utter tosh in our countries papers I have no idea! What he is doing with his website is plain wrong. He has an A level in geography. That is it.....LOL Surely there is something we can do to let our press know about what he is doing? -
Yeah really fair and balanced assessment. I think I should have worded it as a "uk wide" sustained cold and snowy spell. If we do get a developing Scandinavian high we do have the possibility of battleground snow but I'd say that is low confidence right now. I do believe we will see a notable snap at some stage but I think the winter will be a slow burner. Back end of January/beginning of February could be the time to watch as GP mentions but were relying on the QBO and other teleconnections to fall into place fairly soon
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So at the end of the day if someone asked you to look at all the evidence and make a prediction for the weather upto January you would without doubt nail your colours to the non snowy mast! It's not about what is "definitely" going to happen it is what is "more likely" going to happen. It is "more likely" to be a snowless December and early January
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I think you'll find blue army that he has justified all that with his 6 points above!!!!! No one can say for certain what happens in Fi but you can work out what the greater chance of probability is. The odds of no snow till then are 70-30. You can't dispute that. More so if you do dispute that what is your evidence to back up your statement that it will be "snowy??"
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Atlantic Storms - 7th December 2011 Onwards
scotty_boy_winter replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
We will agree to disagree. I don't post to argue just don't agree with some of what you wrote that's all -
Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion
scotty_boy_winter replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's a great chart! I think your bang on with those areas -
Atlantic Storms - 7th December 2011 Onwards
scotty_boy_winter replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Good post Enjoy the science. I do, but don't wish bad weather on people. Saying an extreme weather event is an incredible act of nature is fine but hoping it happens is immoral I'm sorry I cant agree with you on this. Back on topic just needed to get that off my chest -
Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze)
scotty_boy_winter replied to pottyprof's topic in Climate Change
100% agree. The average decline is irafutable and for all to see. While the evidence like this continues to mount then statements of sea ice declining have and will continue to have major mitigation Good post backed up by evidence and good theory. Keep up the good work GW- 320 replies
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Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion
scotty_boy_winter replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Major major major contradiction. You say nothing is nailed until a few days before. If that is our thinking then that would render his forecast from that range a complete guess. That's what it is a guess. If you keep throwing random dates and attaching them to cold eventually you will get lucky and look like you know what your talking about. The met office (the most qualified and skilled forecasters in the uk see no significant cold In December at all -
Atlantic Storms - 7th December 2011 Onwards
scotty_boy_winter replied to Coast's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Very distasteful dude when people's lives are at risk. Interesting?? Yeah I'm context of meteorology and science. But exciting? Not so exciting for the guy who loses his wive to a fallen tree -
Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to kold weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I posted way back in October what the met expected for this coming winter from my relative who works as a senior forecaster (and got shot down) I have to say I've never ever seen them as confident of a mild and snowless winter -
Is Microwave Cooking Bad For You?
scotty_boy_winter replied to PersianPaladin's topic in Space, Science & nature
Lol [quote name=stewfox' timestamp='1321639291' post='2161312] In 1974 our teacher told us to put 2p or 1p coins in glasses of coke and see what happens to them over night . In the morning the coke cleaned them like vinger etc. Teacher said imagine what that coke does to your stomach Thats why I still drink coke today. -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On a slight positive, this high is bottling up some serious, serious cold. If the cold gets displaced to lower latitudes (which I've been told by their office is highly unlikely this year) then it will pack a hell of a punch -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
According to my met friend we could be looking at cold zonality for the far north (northern Scotland) and high pressure further south. Not far off a Bartlett but with the high pressure further south than a true bartlett -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It could go either way but the odds on cold are about 80-20 in favour of mild as the background Synoptics/teleconnections currently show. There is still the chance of cold but it's very very small. I think we need to wait before we start to think about snow -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So explain what pattern you see emerging BFTP? You keep saying its getting colder soon (that's obvious at some stage it will) but what science, charts have helped you come to this conclusion? -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The high pressure is too far east and north to be a bartlett. Your response is 100% incorrect. I'd google the term before posting it. A bit misleading for guys learning the ropes mate -
Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November
scotty_boy_winter replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I still believe background Synoptics are going to leave this winter very frustrating. The strengthening polar vortex is going to finish off November and the majority of not all of December. The talk from today's met office boffo according to my uncle is that December will be +nao +ao dominated as I got slated for giving a heads up on 3 - 4 weeks ago. This place will be depressing for hopecasters this winter I feel...let's enjoy the Atlantic depressions. It's better to just enjoy what's in front of us rather than chasing phantom snow that will not happen -
His blog makes sense. End of