Hello guys,
Wondering if you might help? Not about a specific output but I believe still quantifies as model discussion.
I don’t post here all that much but am autistic with winter weather as an SI. Like many of you, I’m on the models multiple times a day this time of year and putting hours into poring over days etc.
I’n very lucky that I seem to usually back the right horse so to speak. I’ve had a good run for a number of years at calling which events will be snow and which will be a wash out etc. I’m used to being fairly accurate.
I can’t even now cats this year with the radar and get it right. Almost every event, it just isn’t going at all as expected. It will randomly dissipate about 5 miles away and turn to nothing etc. I’ve never seen this happen before. It seems EVERYONE is finding this hard to get right at the moment.
Anyway, it’s getting to me now and I feel like my one good thing has disappeared etc. Can anyone just simply explain why this set up is so challenging for everyone to forecast accurately etc?
I look up to you guys so genuinely, hearing a reason as to why will hopefully halt how totally demotivated I am from none of what I expect (even as a nowcast) actually coming to transpire.
It may sound silly but I get so much confidence from knowing I’m good at the few things I have an SI in and between the virus, home schooling and my darling children finding this all very hard right now etc... this failing of mine is hitting me so hard and I’m kinda crumbling. This genuinely will help me a lot so I appreciate replies.
Sorry if this is wrong place. I never want to post in the wrong forum etc but this fits as model discussion to my brain... just on a larger, generalised scale etc.
Thanks guys and, as always, thank you for all your posts because this place and you lot (plus time and experience) is how I learned this stuff.