Midlander

As we now enter Spring, I just wanted to recap on 'Winter 23/24' Worst winter for snow and cold since 2013/14. It was not a snowless winter, thanks to the early December cold spell, which gave settling snow, but given the expectation from many that this would be the best winter since 2012/13, it really was shockingly bad. At least I've learnt that the Met Office long range written forecasts can be just as accurate as the CFS Also think the ECMWF has been disappointing this season with the GFS being surprisingly decent

AltonMatthew Nice, what’s your elevation?

Looks like the MO have downgraded the longer-range forecasts A winter with many expectations and high hopes but very little to show for it...

I won't throw in the towel (just yet) for this winter season until the Met Office change their long-range forecasts. If they do, it would be all the more disappointing given the seasonal model forecasts and the apparent optimism (especially earlier on in the winter) of usually conservative members in the MAD thread about favourable background signals.

andy_leics22 Yeah, GFS ends the day with 18Z being the furthest north of all of today's GFS runs, whilst the ICON 18Z is the furthest south it has been all day.

Still hoping for some further southerly shunts, but you can see the ECMWF 12Z was further south than the 00Z

UKMO 12Z slightly more appealing than the 06Z

In marginal situations like this, it is quite nice to have a look at the HD zoom AROME, ARPEGE. Can clearly spot the higher elevation areas

GokouD Exactly, can't be too picky when it comes to snowfall!

MattStoke Every miles further south helps! Can see the reason for the snow increase with the 850s 1AM 1PM

AltonMatthew Yes, although I vaguely remember that

Can see the difference more starkly at 1PM Thursday

ARPEGE Ensembles trickling out now. Looks as though the colder 850's average are further south, prior to the precip

In ARPEGE we trust!

Beggars can't be choosers, especially in this modern climate era. I'll take a few hours of heavy, picturesque snow, even if it does eventually all wash away

WeatherArc MattStoke

Can’t bear it! Think I have to go for the nuclear option and hope and for a full-blown collapse of the AMOC and Gulf Stream… Maybe then we’ll get proper cold

Wretched EC 46 with cold pushed back even further into February... dreadful

Utterly devastated by the lack of widespread, heavy and disruptive snow. We deserve it after endless months of warmer-than-average temperatures. I was hoping this cold spell may be one to remember, especially given the optimism of some members in the main thread. But it appears this is yet another case of things becoming less exciting as we approach T0. Still hoping for a snow bomb this season but expecting disappointment.

We may well have a greater chance of recording ice days than snow next week

Yeah, would still need a bigger push north, but I suppose every little helps

Looks like the precip is further north on the 18Z, although it could just be timing differences...

Haha

I count about 4 GFS perts bringing the system far enough north to the Midlands. Pert 27 looks the best, but if the GEM is correct, I doubt many would complain if we miss out

Looks a bit ‘meh’ tbh. I could live with the low moving into to France if it helped strengthen the cold spell. But looks like the Atlantic will just roll in with a wet rather snowy breakdown