All this Winter has demonstrated to me is that (a) all these models try their best to forecast ahead but frankly they haven't a hope in hell of knowing what Mother Nature is going to do and (b) our interpretation of the models simply adds a further layer of guesswork to it all.
I love seeing the models and getting excited at reading the model interpretations (sometimes !) but really - and no disrespect intended - we really haven't got a clue what the weather is going to do beyond 3-4 days !!!