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Everything posted by warrenb
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
warrenb replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think you can have all the synoptic eye candy you like, but fundamentally if there is no cold air around, it ain't going to get cold. Charts at the moment are classic example of this. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
warrenb replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
mulzy I expect the large lady has been on stage, warbled away and already departed. Charts show no sign of cold in the foreseeable, and will likely not going forward, I feel this winter is showing a fundamental shift in our weather patterns. One which the models and programmers are going to have to get to grips with. -
Lights dipped and our EPS kicked in for a few seconds.
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Probably because they don't hang on every deterministic run
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Boom to doom is 2 posts. Got to be a record
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John doesn't do ramps. He has a subtle increase in possibility
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And what you are writing now is before tomorrow's 0z runs. I suspect they have a little more knowledge than we do
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I call it entertaining
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Seconded.
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And a long way to go to get there. Seriously it is a 360 mean
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Honestly it is hilarious in here.people saying it is game over then showing charts at 240 and 360. Sit back enjoy the synoptics and if it turns cold then bonus.
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Has the same nose north as the UKMO
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPNH12_144_1.png UKMO very interesting at 144, with nose of high pressure into the arctic.
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It goes wrong at 180, it should undercut the low but doesn't and just sits it in mid atlantic. I am guessing this model has issues with split flow (sorry if already been said), but this is a classic split flow situation and it just doesn't know how to handle it.
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My thoughts exactly, gets very messy and that is when I lose interest, will check the mean and ENS later at the same time.
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I see no change in the mid term trend. Stop looking at individual runs Individual Ops - 1 to 120 hours Ens and Means 121 to 192 hours for trend and tend to be reliable 192+ la la land.
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240 and up it goes. Greenland here we come Just a bit of shortwave angst between Greenland and scandi earlier in the run. Main thing is all models arrive at the same outcome
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TPV split at 168. Could be good later on. Purely hyperbolic of course
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More of a dart board low meaning more energy to dig south increasing the chance of an undercut