CameronWS

Is there any prospect of lower level snow for the central belt later in the week?

So many storms here in recent years have been hyped without looking too dramatic or being that bad, whereas this one hasn’t got that much attention I feel but looks like it could be the most severe one to hit in years. Will this storm cause sea swells? I remember a few years ago one storm was specifically associated with large expected swells due to it it’s ‘weather bomb’ nature?

Looks a completely unpredictable event, as these so often are. This might be mainly disappointment for the central belt but now something is showing on the models for Thursday night And another feature for the North East tomorrow.

Lots of models showing Tuesdays feature as rain for here. Surely we will get lucky in the middle of winter, in a cold spell. What are the key parameters looking like?

I have a question! Follow the deep cold plunge a breakdown involving a short period of cold zonal is consistently showing. This often very marginal for my location but at least provides moisture. Would the cold plunge directly before it and already entrenched cold increase the likelihood of snow instead of rain?

I’ve seen a lot of Model vs Model comparisons for verification rates… but how much better do Op’s verify compared to their other ensemble members?

Looks to me like the UK high is pretty certain, however more north of the UK based - so only a very slight adjustment North required for the south and east Whilst it won’t deliver snow for most, I’ve accepted this for my location and looking forward to a dry and progressively more frosty period. Some fog sounds nice also. The period thereafter shows another opportunity (and perhaps a slightly better chance) for cold uppers to invade from the N/NE. This is currently around the 240 hours range which understandably is frustrating for some but really does tie in with what the Met Office are saying and the logical timeframe of a second amplification. Loads to watch and be encouraged by!

That was based upon a favourable MJO signal that never materialised. Now there are numerous other factors (all way beyond me) plus the MJO is becoming more optimal. This is seemingly without even considering the SSW that as has been mentioned before would possibly be more likely to reinforce cold conditions in a winter such as this than shake things up negatively.

Looks set to be one of the most interesting weeks of the year here for model watching. Potentially a storm on Thursday followed by cold air digging in, starting from the NW with potential showers and then turning Northerly. Beyond then looks like there could be some battle ground scenarios where cold air meets warm. In this set up it’s pretty certain the fronts will sweep in, it just depends how far south the cold air is. Note that none of this is guaranteed, but the possibility is there (although some sort of storm is likely).

Huge southern bias amongst posts in here this morning I feel. Please at least be neutral and acknowledge the output looks great for some places. This looks a very promising set up for the North West of the country and unusually potent from the direction it’s coming from. Yes it may be short lived but a good chance for many to have some exciting weather.

I must be blind because to me ECM has jumped almost fully on board with GFS and is possibly even colder (for my location) at the same time frame. Moderately cold air looks set to invade when it ends.

Why so many negative when the MJO signal isn’t even being factored in yet to the models? Surely when that becomes apparent the blocking showing up is likely to increase.

If it was a sinker would the route to cold be delayed or fail all together? I’m not fussed about snow for Xmas just like it at anytime - as rare as that is

How can anyone say the ECM won’t go down the GFS route from there? The amplification shown on GFS isn’t even in it’s time frame yet is it?

I thought the MJO for later in the month wouldn’t be factored in to the runs at all yet, hence lack of amplification?

Do you mean when those dates appear on model runs or until when we actually get to those dates? Totally prepared to be patient with the potential for a cold spell near the end of the month!

Look North though?

Seems to me a lot of very reactionary comments on here. Lots of moaning, but we’ve got a full week a cold temps and hard frosts coming up some of the nicest weather other than Snow IMO. Surely the lack of moisture would be have been expected at the time of the season and not a surprise? Later in the season colder T850s would create greater convection - I actually think the disappointment is partly because the spell has actually turned out much better than hoped. According to all the knowledgeable posters on here it appears we’re entering a phase from the start of next week where the background drivers aren’t in our favour. By the final third of December there appears to be a lot of excitement about what could potentially happen - the main focus right now should be be on those developments rather than devastation because the Atlantic pushes the block back as expected after a nice, unexpected and (by all accounts) lucky cold spell. I personally am looking forward to seeing what later in the month has to offer!

This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern? This is interesting because the charts make it look like it just wasn’t reaching! Will the cold that will be travelling over help to cool the sea temperatures so maybe the uppers are progressively less moderated if we can sustain the pattern?

So, if I’m right we have a potential spoiler low that could?: - (Option 1) Not exist/go way south - keeping all of the UK in a cold to very cold flow, mainly dry with some isolated snow/sleet showers and hard frosts. (Option 2) Go way north - provides rain the most of the UK and diluting the cold air - perhaps making the Atlantic favourite to take over again. (Option 3) Go slightly north - delays any arrival of deep cold. Provide rain to southern England and Ireland (hence lots of negative comments on here) and provided potential for a marginal snow event somewhere in the UK with high risk v reward. This eventually gets push out of the way by more cold air. Imo the only bad option (long term) is the low probability option 2 where the low takes an extreme track north. I’m trying to learn so please correct me if I’m totally wrong

Yet just as good for cold in the short term? Inconsistency with the heights but still a pretty good outcome for cold based on what I can see. Also a broad theme that is showing across all models.

You say late December/early January. Does that suggest reduced chances of cold after early January? And almost no chance of significant cold before mid December as there’s too much Westerly momentum?

I’ve seen a few of your post recently are extremely positive but are way beyond my understanding! What is it you’re seeing and when do you expect it to have a major impact in the UK?

Is this quite a rare situation? I can’t remember many amber warnings for rain in previous years.

When you say all of us, do you mean even at lower levels as Met office don’t seem to indicate that currently?